有可能免疫概率的计算机病毒传播的数学建模

Neni Nur Laili Ersela Zain, P. Sihombing
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引用次数: 0

摘要

计算机病毒数量的增加可以用具有免疫概率的SEIR型疾病传播的数学模型来模拟。这项研究的目的是模拟计算机病毒的传播模式。本研究采用的方法是数学免疫概率分析法。通过对模型的分析,得到了无病平衡点E1和地方病平衡点E2。平衡点的存在性和局部稳定性取决于基本再生数R0。平衡点E1和E2趋于局部稳定,因为R0<1,这意味着没有疾病传播。而数值模拟结果显示,在模拟结果的图形上,免疫概率的大小会影响隔间R和新计算机的最小尺寸,计算机病毒的传播会影响隔间S和E。免疫模型SEIR成功得出的结论表明,提高免疫概率对病毒暴露后计算机卫生次数的增加有显著影响。
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PEMODELAN MATEMATIKA TERHADAP PENYEBARAN VIRUS KOMPUTER DENGAN PROBABILITAS KEKEBALAN
The increase in the number of computer viruses can be modeled with a mathematical model of the spread of SEIR type of diseases with immunity probability. This study aims to model the pattern of the spread of computer viruses. The method used in this research is the analytical method with the probability of mathematical immunity. Based on the analysis of the model, two equilibrium points free from disease E1 and endemic equilibrium points E2 were obtained. The existence and local stability of the equilibrium point depends on the basic reproduction number R0. Equilibrium points E1 and E2 tend to be locally stable because R0<1 which means there is no spread of disease. While the numerical simulation results shown that the size of the probability of immunity will affect compartment R and the minimum size of a new computer and the spread of computer viruses will affect compartments S and E on the graph of the simulation results. The conclusion obtained by the immune model SEIR successfully shows that increasing the probability of immunity significantly affects the increase in the number of computer hygiene after being exposed to a virus.
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