乌克兰的冶金工业:通过外部因素棱镜的产出动态

V. Venger, S. Shumska
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引用次数: 1

摘要

国内冶金工业是世界工业不可分割的一部分,其发展是在全球趋势的背景下进行的,例如冶金产量不断增长,同时冶炼过剩,生产集中度提高,冶炼前15个主要国家金属产品消费和出口增加。这种趋势的主要后果是全球钢铁市场竞争的显著加剧。尽管乌克兰的冶金工业是全球黑色金属及其生产原料市场的重要参与者,在生产和出口方面具有一定的优势,但从宏观经济的角度来看,乌克兰的整个经济是开放的,规模很小。这就有理由将乌克兰的冶金工业归为"小型开放工业"一类,其特点是出口导向,在全球产出、出口、进口和国内消费中所占份额很小,最重要的是,对世界价格缺乏决定性影响。由于乌克兰的冶金工业规模小而开放,其绝大多数产品都运往世界市场,因此有人认为,冶金产量的动态直接受到世界钢铁价格、格里夫纳汇率和天然气价格等外部因素的影响。所得结果证实了乌克兰冶金工业在整个研究期间完全依赖外部因素作用的假设。特别是,全球金属产品市场上有利的价格形势确保了冶金产量的高动态。同时,乌克兰本国货币在不同时期的贬值产生了不同的影响。在整个研究期间,天然气价格抑制了冶金产量。
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Ukraine's metallurgical industry: output dynamics through the prism of external factors
Domestic metallurgical industry is an integral part of the world industry, and its development takes place in the context of global trends, such as constant growth of metallurgical production with simultaneous excess of smelting, increasing concentration of production, and increasing consumption and export of metal products in TOP-15 leading smelting countries. The main consequence of such trends is a significant intensification of competition on the global steel market. Despite the fact, that Ukraine's metallurgical industry is an important participant in the global market of ferrous metals and raw materials for their production and has certain advantages in their production and export, like the whole Ukraine's economy, is open and small in macroeconomic terms. This gives grounds to refer Ukraine's metallurgical industry of to the category of "small open industry", which is characterized by export orientation, a small share of output in global output, exports, imports, and domestic consumption and, most importantly – by the lack of decisive influence on world prices. Since Ukraine's metallurgical industry is small and open, and the vast majority of its products are shipped to world markets, it was suggested that the dynamics of metallurgical output is directly influenced by external factors such as world steel prices, the hryvnia exchange rate and the price for natural gas. The obtained results confirmed the hypothesis that Ukraine's metallurgical industry throughout the entire study period was completely dependent on the action of external factors. In particular, the favorable price situation on the global market of metal products ensured a high dynamics of metallurgical output. At the same time, devaluation of Ukrainian national currency in different periods had different effects. The price for natural gas restrained the metallurgical output throughout the entire study period.
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