基于数字孪生和改进GRU的数字负荷预测方法

Yu Gu, Fandi Wang, Mukun Li, Lu Zhang, Wenlong Gong
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引用次数: 0

摘要

针对大多数负荷预测方法在电网数字化过程中难以实现高精度数据处理的问题,提出了一种基于数字孪生和改进GRU的数字电网负荷预测方法。首先,基于数字孪生技术构建了数字电网模型,详细介绍了数字孪生电网的运行模式;然后,将时间卷积网络(TCN)与门控循环单元(GRU)网络相融合,设计了GRU-TCN预测模型。将TCN提取的高维数据特征输入到GRU网络中进行学习,提高模型的预测性能。最后,将GRU-TCN模型应用于数字双网负荷预测,获得了高精度的预测结果。基于仿真平台的实验结果表明,所提出方法预测结果的均方根误差为28.428KW,平均绝对百分比误差值为2.161%,预测效果良好。
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A Digital Load Forecasting Method Based on Digital Twin and Improved GRU
In view of the problems that most load forecasting methods are difficult to achieve high-precision data processing in the process of power grid digitization, a digital power grid load forecasting method based on digital twin and improved GRU is proposed. Firstly, the digital power grid model is constructed based on the digital twin technology, and the operation mode of the digital twin power grid is introduced in detail. Then, the time convolution network (TCN) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) network are fused to design the GRU-TCN prediction model. The high-dimensional data features extracted by TCN are input into the GRU network for learning to enhance the model prediction performance. Finally, the GRU-TCN model is applied to the load forecasting of digital twin power grid, and the high-precision forecasting results are obtained. The experimental results based on the simulation platform show that the proposed method prediction results root mean square error is 28.428KW, and mean absolute percentage error values is 2.161%, which prediction effect is good.
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