少数部分贝叶斯更新在非贝叶斯社会学习中的作用

Yucheng Wei, He Huang, Z. Weng, Xiaofan Wang
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引用次数: 1

摘要

介绍了一种基于非贝叶斯学习和贝叶斯学习相结合的信息更新规则的社交网络智能体模型。来自不同个体的信号通过网络聚合,这样每个智能体都能收集到关于真实状态的足够信息。随着时间的无限增长,专家贝叶斯智能体的观察将驱动网络中真实状态的平均信念,其收敛的可能性为1。我们没有使用完全的贝叶斯方法,而是直接选择一些邻居的贝叶斯观测值和另一个邻居的观察值的线性组合。在至少存在一个专家智能体的温和假设下,智能体对世界底层状态的信念会随着时间的推移而增加,所有智能体的信念最终收敛到世界底层真实状态的可能性变为1。
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The power of the minority-partly Bayesian update in non-Bayesian social learning
This paper introduces a model that agents use an information updating rule combining non-Bayesian learning and Bayesian learning in a social network. Signals from some distinguishing individuals aggregate through the network so that every agent could collect enough information about the true state. The observation from expert Bayesian agents will drive the average belief of the true state in the network convergence with possibility of 1 as time grows infinite. Instead of using a fully Bayesian manner, we choose a linear combination of some neighbor's Bayesian observation and the other's view directly. Under some mild assumption of existing at least an expert agent, the agent's beliefs of the underlying state of the world will increase by time, and the possibility of all agent's beliefs finally convergence to the underlying true state of the world become 1.
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