Transitions from Democracy in Nigeria: Toward a Pre-emptive Analysis

Two 'fully fledged' democratic administrations in Nigeria have been terminated by military coups d'etat since independence in 1960. Having, in addition ruled for about 30 out of over 40 years of sovereign existence, the military has been described as the obstacle to the consolidation of democracy. But what a critical reading of Nigeria's political history would reveal is that the elected governments were in the throes of death almost from their inauguration, while the state had virtually collapsed by general election time. The military coup, thus, became a kind of euthanasia. In both cases of breakdown, there was a repeated pattern of transition from democracy marked by depluralization, state appropriation, delegitimation of regimes, inter-hegemonic conflict and, finally, military coup. These are argued as consequences of the peculiar political and intergroup environment of Nigeria and character of the state. Therefore, every future democratic administration is susceptible to the same trajectory. Yet, the progressively degrading tenor of life under military rule has highlighted the intrinsic value of democracy. This article, therefore, attempts to create, from a genetic analysis of the collapse of democracy in Nigeria, the groundwork for a pre-emptive analysis.