Sensitivity analysis to the cost of delay model for NextGen benefits analysis

Previous studies of the US Air Transportation System have tried to identify rational airline behavior during times of significant economic and regulatory change [1]. That research indicated that even during periods of increased fuel prices and slot controls at the New York Airports, the airlines chose to reduce the size of the aircraft rather than reduce schedule and increase aircraft size [2]. This study uses delay-cost modeling to explain such behavior. This paper extends our previous analysis of airline delay costs [3] by applying that methodology to new data and examining the sensitivity of the results to such data changes. We examine the sensitivity of airline delay costs to aircraft fuel burn rates, fuel prices, crew and maintenance costs, and airline market shares. We observe that delay costs are most sensitive to fuel burn rates. We then identify the aircraft that is “best in class” and find that the current airline behavior of moving to smaller, more efficient aircraft makes good economic sense because it increases frequency while simultaneously reducing the two highest operational costs: fuel costs and crew costs. This finding has significant impact for those responsible for managing congestion in the airspace and at airports.