设置服务容量的需求生物节律估算

Yuval Cohen, S. Rozenes
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摘要

本文基于对各种服务需求模式(如电力和水的消耗、银行、医院、通信等)的实证数据的分析。研究结果显示,世界不同地区对各种不同服务的需求模式相似。这些模式反映了相关人群的活动水平。白天的服务在工作日有典型的高峰时间。这很好地解释了作者所说的“需求生物节律”。许多日间服务经历了双峰需求,而在美国,服务需求也可能只有一个峰。分析显示,同一工作日的需求有着惊人的相似性,工作日和周末的需求有着显著的差异。此外,一周的第一天总是经历需求激增。本文讨论了基于相关需求模式有效规划服务劳动力和容量的方法。
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Demand Biorhythm Estimation for Setting Service Capacity
This article is based on an analysis of empirical data on various service demand patterns such as electricity and water consumption, banks, hospitals, communications and others. The research findings show similar patterns of demand for various different services in different parts of the world. The patterns reflect the relevant population's level of activity. Daytime services have typical peak hours during a workday. This is nicely explained by what the authors call the ‘Demand Biorhythm.' Many daytime services experience a double hump demand, whereas in the US the service demand may also have a single hump. The analysis shows a striking demand similarity of the same weekdays, and a significant difference between the demand of workdays and weekend days. Also, the first day of the week always experiences a demand surge. The article discusses ways to efficiently plan the service workforce and capacity based on the relevant demand patterns.
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