河流气象站气象参数变化的评估

V. Kholodenko, A. Kholodenko
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的是表征Rivne气象站的气象参数,并评估其2005年至2020年期间的变化。研究方法建立在以下几个方面:观测数据随时间的回归;级数中相邻元素之间存在联系;气象参数积分累积曲线的构建构造了曲面的图形,从而可以直观地评估它们在未来的预测;根据统计参数和非参数标准确定一系列观测值的均匀性;降水不均匀系数的计算。积分曲线对比结果表明,各年气象参数的长期波动具有阶段性,即对于不同的气象参数,气象站可以同时观测到相同的相位,但这些相位的平均值之比发生了变化。某些气象参数的增减阶段顺序可以区分它们的变化周期。根据参数统计准则和非参数统计准则对同质性的评价表明,空气湿度、风速、最低气温、降水等气象参数均有变化,这在统计上得到了证实。降水不均匀系数变化很大。Rivne气象站的气象参数评估具有科学的新颖性,在统计上得到了验证,其结果可用于其他科学评估和研究。研究结果的实际意义,即气象参数变化的事实,可用于沃林波兰和沃林高地领土的水文和地貌研究
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ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AT THE RIVNE WEATHER STATION
The goal is to characterize the meteorological parameters at the Rivne weather station and evaluate their changes for the period from 2005 to 2020. The research methodology is built in the following directions: regression of observation data on time; the presence of connections between adjacent members of the series; construction of integral cumulative curves of meteorological parameters; graphs of surfaces are constructed, which make it possible to visually assess their forecast in the future; the homogeneity of the series of observations according to statistical parametric and non-parametric criteria is determined; calculation of the precipitation unevenness coefficient. The results of the comparison of integral curves show that long-term fluctuations of annual meteorological parameters are in phase, that is, for different meteorological parameters, the same phases can be observed at the weather station at the same time, but the ratio of average values for these phases changes. The sequence of phases of decrease and increase of certain meteorological parameters allows to distinguish cycles of their changes. The assessment of homogeneity according to parametric and non-parametric statistical criteria showed that there are changes in meteorological parameters: air humidity, wind speed, minimum air temperature, precipitation, which is statistically proven. The coefficient of uneven precipitation varies widely. The scientific novelty consists in the assessment of meteorological parameters at the Rivne weather station, which is proven statistically and its results can be used for other scientific assessments and research. The practical significance of the research results, namely the fact of changes in meteorological parameters, can be used in hydrological and geomorphological studies of the territory of the Volyn Polissia and the Volyn Highlands
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