基于面板Logistic模型的汽车行业上市公司财务困境预警

Wan Xiaodan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,上市公司风险管理普遍较差,受中国金融危机影响的上市公司比例越来越大,产生了大量坏账。因此,在上市公司财务危机发生之前建立预警系统,提前告知管理者和投资者,以便尽快采取有效措施,消除危机隐患是值得的。本文选取沪深两市181家ST企业,将沪深两市181家非ST企业进行1:1匹配,构建了基于主成分分析和logistic回归的财务风险预警模型。通过杜邦分析得到15个财务指标,根据其显著性选择8个财务指标作为预警指标,通过logistic回归分析建立金融危机预测模型。从结果来看,逻辑预测模型是优越的。
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Based on Panel Logistic model about Early warning of financial distress of listed companies in automobile industry
In recent years, listed companies in general have poor risk management, the proportion of listed companies affected by the Chinese financial crisis is growing, resulting in a large number of bad debts. Thus, it is worthwhile to establish an early warning system for listed companies' financial crisis before it occurs, and to inform managers and investors in advance, so that effective measures can be implemented as soon as possible to eliminate the crisis's hidden dangers. In this paper, 181 ST enterprises from Shanghai and Shenzhen are chosen, and 181 non-ST enterprises from Shanghai and Shenzhen are matched 1:1, and a financial risk early-warning model based on principal component analysis and logistic regression is built. After obtaining 15 financial indicators through DuPont analysis, 8 financial indicators are chosen as early-warning indicators based on their significance, and a model for predicting financial crises is established through logistic regression analysis. According to the results, the logistic prediction model is superior.
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