概率估计模型:社会经济因素对农户粮食安全水平概率的影响

D. Hastuti, A. Rahim, Citra Ayni Kamaruddin, S. Astuty
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引用次数: 0

摘要

粮食安全是事关一国发展的全球性战略问题之一。本研究在印度尼西亚的Bone Regency进行,分析了社会经济因素对农户粮食安全概率的影响。研究方法采用横断面数据定量分析和最大似然估计(MLE)方法的有序概率估计模型分析。考虑到骨区粮食安全和脆弱性地图集(FSVA)报告仍将该地区划分为粮食不安全地区,通过有目的抽样选择了研究地点。抽样方法为随机抽样,共84户农户。研究结果表明,农户粮食安全水平的概率受到一定社会经济条件(包括家庭收入和教育水平)的积极影响,而其他社会经济因素(如户主年龄和家庭成员人数)的影响不显著。对没有显著影响的变量给予特别关注,预计将增加农户获得粮食安全的机会。有必要向许多家庭成员提供和支持获取有关粮食安全和经济机会重要性的信息。同样,粮食支助是对不再处于生产年龄的户主的粮食不安全保护。
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Probit Estimation Model: Influence of Socio-Economic Factors on the Probability of Farmers’ Household Food Security Level
Summary Food security is one of the global strategic issues in a country’s development. This research conducted in Bone Regency, Indonesia, analyzes the influence of socio-economic factors on the probability of food security in farmer households. The research method used is quantitative with cross-sectional data and model analysis with ordered probit estimation with the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. The research location was chosen by purposive sampling, considering that this location is still classified as food insecure based on the Bone District Food Security and Vulnerability Atlas (FSVA) Report. The sampling technique was accidental sampling, with 84 farmer households. The findings indicate that the probability of the food security level of farmer households is positively influenced by certain socio-economic conditions, including household income and education level, while other socio-economic factors, such as the age of the household head and the number of family members, have no significant effect. Special attention to variables that have no significant effect is expected to increase the chances of food security in farmer households. There is a need to provide and support access to information on the importance of food security and economic opportunities for many family members. Likewise, food support is protection against food insecurity for household heads who are no longer at productive age.
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