香港股票市场的回报间隔分析

Hong Zhang, Nianpeng Wang, Keqiang Dong
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摘要

本文分析了香港股市从1986年12月31日至2008年6月6日22年期间的恒生指数数据,共5315个交易日。利用重标量程方法,研究了阈值q对阈值q以上事件间的回归区间s r(τ)相关性的影响。结果表明:1)不同阈值q得到的回归区间与原序列均呈现长期依赖关系;Ii)阈值q越大,回归区间的相关性越强。
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Return Intervals Analysis of the Hong Kong Stock Market
In this paper, we analyze the Hang Seng Index data for the 22-year period, from December 31, 1986, to June 6,2008 in the Hongkong stock market, a total of 5315 trading days. Using rescaled range method, we study how the threshold value q affects the correlations of the return intervals s r(τ ) between events above a certain threshold q. We find that: i) both return intervals obtained by different threshold q and the original series are arranged in long-range dependence behavior; ii) the correlations of the return intervals grow stronger when the threshold q is larger.
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