过去一个世纪的全球海平面变化

Yao-Ting Tseng, Jian-Jiun Ding, J. Lou
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引用次数: 2

摘要

从全球验潮仪数据得出的研究结果表明,在过去的一个世纪里,全球水域同时受到月球节点潮的调制,周期为18.6年,每年上升约2毫米。与其他地区相比,东大西洋沿岸地区表现出强烈的半日模式,似乎没有特别的海平面上升问题。不考虑当地气候和地质隆起或沉降问题的可能性,最严重的海平面上升现象发生在菲律宾马尼拉,每年13.24毫米,与加拿大丘吉尔最极端的海平面下降速度10.11毫米/年形成了相当大的对比。通过这项研究,我们不仅能够从全球数据中确定每个测量站的海平面上升速率,而且能够预测18.6年潮汐的下一个海平面峰值的时间,预计在2025年6月。
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Global sea level change in the past century
Study results derived from global tide gauge data indicate that the global waters were simultaneously subject to the modulation of lunar nodal tide showing a period of 18.6 years and rose at a rate of about 2 mm per year in the past century. In contrast to other regions, those sitting along the east Atlantic Ocean coastal lines show strong semi-diurnal pattern and seemly do not suffer from extraordinary sea level rise problems. Without considering possibilities from local climatic and geological uplift or subsidence problems, the most severe sea level rise phenomenon of 13.24 mm per year happened at Manila, Philippines, a considerable contrast with the most extreme sea level falling rate of 10.11 mm/year at Churchill in Canada. From this study, we are not only able to identify the sea level rise rate for every gauge station from the global data but also be able to predict the timing of the next peak sea level of the 18.6-year tide, which is predicted in June 2025.
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