随机微分方程在大气温度预报中的应用

Mingming Xu, Cijun Fang, Desheng Tian
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随机微分方程在大气温度预报中有着广泛的应用。本文在建立的全球平均气温随机微分logistic模型的基础上,采用欧拉数值模型方法对模型参数值进行估计,并对模型的拟合进行分析、评价。从而确定了模型的预测效率。此外,本文还对未来几年的全球平均气温进行了预测。最后,通过对全球平均温度的主要研究变量——环境容量的分析,表明如果人类不加以控制,全球平均温度将继续升高。
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Application of Stochastic Differential Equation in Atmospheric Temperature Prediction
Stochastic differential equations are widely used in atmospheric temperature prediction. This paper based on the established stochastic differential logistic model of global average temperature, it takes Euler's numerical model method to estimate the parameter values and analyze, evaluate the model fitting. The prediction efficiency of the model is determined thereby. Besides, the global average temperature for the next few years is predicted as stated in this paper. Finally, by analyzing the main research variable of global average temperature - environmental capacity, it shows that that if human beings do not get controlled, the global average temperature will continue to increase.
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