经济数字化条件下基于Hadoop和演绎器的创新产品成本预测系统

N. Lomakin, A. Shokhnekh, S. Sazonov, Alena Polianskaia, Gennady Lukyanov, A. Gorbunova
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引用次数: 6

摘要

本文代表了人工智能系统在大数据处理中的应用研究的理论基础。考虑了最全面的数据分析和机器学习工具列表。对比Hadoop框架和演绎分析平台进行了机会分析。提出了一种人工智能系统,用于预测俄罗斯经济数字化背景下创新产品的成本。提出并证明了一个假设,即神经网络可以对俄罗斯联邦的创新产品成本进行预测。神经网络模型包括GDP(亿卢布)、关键利率(%)、RTS指数、创新产品产出(亿卢布)、创新产品成本(亿卢布)、美元汇率(卢布)、平衡利润(亿卢布)、风险(σ)、贷款(亿卢布)、vix指数和创新产品量预测(亿卢布)等参数。所提供的参数清单反映了2015年至2018年期间经济领域和俄罗斯金融部门的季度发展。基于大数据的量化和后续可视化,并使用多维图,开发的人工智能系统可以根据创新产品的成本和全球经济格局中的VIX期权股票交易所报价来揭示俄罗斯的GDP趋势。此外,还开发了利用“演绎”平台的“what-if”功能预测创新产品成本的人工智能系统。
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Hadoop and Deductor Based Digital Ai System for Predicting Cost of Innovative Products in Conditions of Digitalization of Economy
The article represents theoretical foundations investigated for application of artificial intelligence systems in Big Data processing. The most comprehensive list of tools for data analysis and machine learning has been considered. A comparative Hadoop framework and Deductor analytical platform opportunity analysis has been performed. An AI-system has been proposed for predicting the cost of innovative products in the context of digitalization of the Russian economy. A hypothesis that a neural network makes it possible to obtain a forecast for the cost of innovative products in the Russian Federation has been put forward and proved. The neural network model included such parameters as GDP (billion rubles), key rate (%), RTS index, output of innovative products (billion rubles), costs of innovative products (billion rubles), dollar exchange rate (rubles), balanced profit (billion rubles), risk (σ), loans originated (billion rubles), VIX-Index and forecast for the volume of innovative products (billion rubles). The list of parameters presented reflects the development of both the economic sphere and Russia's financial sector quarterly for the period of from 2015 to 2018. Based on quantization and subsequent visualization of big data and using a multidimensional diagram, the artificial intelligence system developed allows revealing the GDP trend in Russia depending on the cost of innovative products and the VIX option stock-exchange quotation in the global economic landscape. The AI-system that enables prediction for the cost of innovative products using the "what-if" function in the Deductor platform has been developed.
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