利用petri网对人为因素进行建模

L. Bedreaga, B. D. Guzun, C. Constantinescu
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引用次数: 2

摘要

通常,在对复杂系统进行可靠性分析时,我们确定成功概率与其他性能指标一起工作,即与某一状态相关的可能性。根据系统状态的可能值可以用归纳方法推导出来。如果要计算系统中某一特定事件发生的概率,则必须应用演绎法。在人的可靠性分析的特殊情况下,作为概率安全分析的一部分,国际管理委员会制定了进行这种评估的具体指南和程序(国际原子能机构:进行核电厂概率安全评估的程序,1992年)。本文提出了利用Petri网方法对人的可靠性进行量化的方法。由于系统的特定特性,这是一种评估系统可靠性的有效模式。文中所举的例子均来自人的可靠性文献,没有详细的人的因素分析(定性)。我们提出了使用事件树和Petri网方法的人类行为建模。两种方法得到的结果具有较好的一致性。
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Modelling of the human factor using petri nets
Usually, in the reliability analysis performed for a complex system, we determine the success probability to work together with other performance indices, i.e. the likelihood associated with one state. The possible values according to system states can be derived using inductive methods. If one wants to calculate the probability to occur a particular event in the system, then must be applied the deductive methods. In the particular case of the human reliability analysis, as part of probabilistic safely analysis, the international regulatory commission have developed the specific guides and procedures to perform such assessment (International Atomic Energy Agency: Procedures for conducting probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants, 1992). The paper presents the modality to perform human reliability quantification using Petri nets approach. These are an efficient mode to assess reliability systems because of their specific features. The examples showed in the paper are from human reliability documentation without a detailed human factor analysis (qualitative). We present human action modelling using event trees and Petri nets approach. The obtained results by these two kinds of methods are in good concordance.
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