乌干达癌症发病率、艾滋病流行率和国内生产总值之间的关系

K. Mubiru, Hellen Namawejje, L. Atuhaire
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摘要

这项研究考察了乌干达癌症发病率、艾滋病毒流行率和国内生产总值之间的关系。该研究使用的次级数据是来自乌干达坎帕拉癌症登记处的癌症数据。国内生产总值数据来自国际货币基金组织的《世界经济展望》,艾滋病数据来自联合国艾滋病规划署2017年报告。采用多元时间序列分析方法,时间跨度为1993 -2014年。研究结果表明,非艾滋病定义的癌症,即胃癌(p=0.000)、眼癌(p=0.000)、肝癌(p=0.000)和前列腺癌(p=0.000)与HIV患病率呈长期显著正相关,而结肠癌(p=0.002)、肺癌(p=0.00)和乳腺癌(p=0.004)与HIV患病率呈显著负相关。在乌干达,乳腺癌(p=0.00)和前列腺癌(p=0.001)与国内生产总值呈显著正相关,而肺癌(p=0.000)与国内生产总值呈显著负相关。艾滋病定义的癌症,如非霍奇金癌(p=0.001)与HIV流行率长期呈显著正相关,而宫颈癌(p=0.000)与HIV流行率呈显著负相关。宫颈癌(p=0.014)与乌干达国内生产总值呈正相关。该研究建议政府加强减少艾滋病毒的政策,因为人们观察到艾滋病毒与癌症有重大关系。
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The Association Between Cancer Incidence, HIV Prevalence, and Gross Domestic Product in Uganda
This research examines the association of cancer incidence, HIV prevalence and gross domestic product in Uganda. The study utilised secondary data were Cancer data was obtained from the Kampala Cancer Registry, Uganda. Gross domestic product data from IMF’s World Economic Outlook and AIDS data from UNAIDS 2017 report. Multivariate time series analysis method was used covering a period from 1993 -2014. The research findings indicate that the Non-AIDS defining cancers, that is, stomach (p=0.000), eye (p=0.000), liver (p=0.000) and prostate (p=0.000) had a long run positive significant relationship with HIV prevalence while colon (p=0.002), lung (p=0.00) and breast (p=0.004) had a negative significant relationship with HIV prevalence. Also breast (p=0.00) and prostate (p=0.001) had a positive significant relationship with Gross domestic product while cancer of the lung (p=0.000) had a negative significant relationship with gross domestic product in Uganda. AIDS defining cancers such as Non-Hodgkin cancer (p=0.001) had a long run positive significant relationship with HIV prevalence while cervical (p=0.000) had a negative significant relationship with HIV prevalence. Cervical cancer (p=0.014) had a positive significant relationship with Gross domestic product in Uganda. The study recommends government to enhance policies that reduce HIV since it was observed that HIV had a significant relationship with cancer.
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