为什么伊斯兰教在21世纪的中东仍然具有重要的政治意义?

Gibran Banhakeia
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摘要

超越时代的伊斯兰复兴和复兴、后殖民时期阿拉伯民族主义的失败、后冷战时期伊斯兰主义的接管,这些都有可能被推到未来几十年或几百年。分析当代穆斯林政治的趋势,并将其置于未来的背景下,伊斯兰教在21世纪的中东仍将具有重要的政治意义。动荡的国内伊斯兰政治、顽强的社会运动、意识形态的对抗、阿拉伯民族主义的复兴以及伊朗革命的后续影响,正在以重大的方式影响该地区进入本世纪的国家辩论。以外部干涉为基础的地区霸权主义和宗派主义很可能阻碍该地区走向未来。不断扩大的什叶派和逊尼派分裂可能会为政治伊斯兰提供推进至上主义议程所需的燃料。包括全球化在内的现代世界的跨国性质和世俗主义的持续威胁正迫使该地区以各种方式对外作出反应。在未来的几个世纪里,伊斯兰主义是阐明适合该地区对抗非正统主题的话语的关键。很明显,伊斯兰教在21世纪的中东地区仍将具有重要的政治意义,尽管有时存在暴力极端主义,但世界其他国家必须认识到这一事实,并集中精力设计和开放促进全球多样性和非暴力的交流渠道。
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Why does Islam Remain Politically Important in Twenty-first Century Middle East?
The sign of Islamic rejuvenation and reinvigoration that transcended eras along its evolutionary path and the failure of Arab nationalism in the postcolonial period as well as its takeover by Islamism in the post-Cold War era are likely to be thrust into the decades and centuries ahead. Analyzing the trends of contemporary Muslim politics and transposing them onto a future context, Islam will remain politically important in the 21st century Middle East. Fluid domestic Islamist politics, resilient social movements, ideological rivalries, resurgent Arab nationalism and the after effects of Iranian revolution are impacting national debates in the region in significant ways going forward into the century. Regional hegemony and sectarianism underpinned by external interference are likely to blight the region’s march towards the future. The widening Shia-Sunni schism is likely to offer political Islam the necessary fuel for advancing supremacist agenda. The transnational nature of the modern world including globalization and the constant threat of secularism is forcing the region to react externally in various ways. Islamism is key to elucidating the discourse appropriate for countering unorthodox themes within the region in the centuries to come. Since it is clear that Islam will remain politically important in the 21st century Middle East, at times with violent extremism, it is imperative that the rest of the world recognizes that fact and concentrates on designing and opening channels of communication that promote diversity and non-violence across the globe.
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