农业部门对罗马尼亚经济增长的贡献

R. Drăcea, Laura Ciobanu
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摘要

虽然农业是罗马尼亚的主要经济部门之一,但其对GDP的贡献在过去28年中不断下降,从1989年的23.00%降至2017年的4.37%。这一现象的原因是,罗马尼亚的经济过去是以农业结构为基础的经济,现在是以服务业为基础的经济。尽管农业对GDP形成的贡献正在下降,罗马尼亚仍然是欧盟所有国家中农业部门在GDP结构中所占份额最大的国家——大约是欧洲平均水平的3倍,也是农业用地在总土地面积中所占份额最高的国家。这些方面表明,在欧洲联盟成员国中,罗马尼亚是最依赖农业的国家,从事农业的人数最多,农业面积占比最大。在此背景下,本文分析了2000-2017年间农业部门对罗马尼亚经济增长的影响。实证分析基于三个自变量(农业生产、农业公共支出和农业直接投资)和一个因变量(按不变价格计算的GDP)。数据面板由NIS (National Institute of Statistics)提供的信息组成,数据使用多元回归进行分析。
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THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ROMANIA
Although agriculture is one of the main economic sectors of Romania, its contribution to GDP has constantly decreased over the last 28 years, from 23.00% in 1989 to 4.37% in 2017. This phenomenon is explained by the fact that Romania’s economy past from being an economy based on an agricultural structure to one based on services. Even though the contribution of agriculture to GDP formation is declining, Romania still has the largest share of the agricultural sector in the GDP structure from all the countries of the European Union – about 3 times higher than the European average, and also the highest share of agricultural land in the total land area. These aspects show that within the member countries of the European Union, Romania is the country most dependent on agriculture, with the largest number of people involved in agriculture and with the largest share of agricultural areas in total. In this context, the paper analyzes the impact of the agricultural sector on Romania’s economic growth, between 2000-2017. The empirical analysis is based on three independent variables (agricultural production, public expenditure on agriculture and direct investment in agriculture) and one dependent variable (GDP at constant prices). The data panel consists of information provided by the NIS (National Institute of Statistics), and the data are analyzed using multiple regression.
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