2020年罗马尼亚COVID-19大流行带来的汇率机会估计

Ș. Ţălu, A. Nazarov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是评估2020年COVID-19大流行对罗马尼亚估计汇率的影响,并确定2020年底本币贬值的幅度。考虑到这一流行病的经济影响,以及罗马尼亚宏观经济形势的恶化,从2020年10月10日开始加速,估计这些负面影响将持续到2020年底,届时欧元/罗马尼亚朗的汇率可能达到4.9295罗马尼亚朗的门槛。在这种财政背景下,国际投资者开始倾向于投资更安全的资产,如黄金,黄金的价格创下了过去7年来的最高纪录。
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Estimated Exchange Rate Opportunities Generated by the COVID-19 Pandemic in Romania in 2020
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic in Romania in 2020 over the estimated exchange rate and also identifies the magnitude of the depreciation of the national currency at the end of 2020. Appreciating the economic impact of this epidemic, as well as a worsening of the macroeconomic situation in Romania, accelerated starting with October 10, 2020, it is estimated that these negative effects will be felt until the end of 2020, when the EUR / RON exchange rate can reach the threshold of 4.9295 RON. In this fiscal context, international investors began to prefer investments in safer assets, such as gold, which recorded the highest price in the last 7 years.
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