印度尼西亚大米进口分析:艾滋病方法

Agus Widarjono
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引用次数: 6

摘要

大米是印尼家庭的主食。印度尼西亚在1984年实现大米自给后,由于国内大米消费量始终超过国内大米产量,因此仍然需要进口大米。本研究试图分析1998-2014年期间的大米进口。根据印尼大米进口的主要合作伙伴包括越南、泰国、美国和其他国家,对大米进口进行了分析。本研究采用了近乎理想需求系统(AIDS)的需求系统方法。结果表明,从越南和泰国进口的大米价格弹性为非弹性,而从其他国家进口的大米价格弹性为弹性。根据大米进口的支出弹性,大米是泰国和美国进口大米的正常商品。政策模拟表明,大米进口价格上涨导致大米进口减少。但是,从泰国等部分国家进口的大米仍在增加。大米是主食,因此,政府必须制定政策,增加国内大米生产,以减少对进口大米的依赖。
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Analysis of Rice Imports in Indonesia: AIDS approach
Rice is a staple food for Indonesian households. After achieving self-sufficiency of rice in 1984, Indonesia still had to import rice because the domestic rice consumption always exceeded the domestic rice production.  This study attempts to analyze a rice import during the 1998-2014 period. The rice import was analyzed based on the main partner of Indonesian rice imports encompassing of Vietnam, Thailand, USA, Other countries. This research applied the demand system method using Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). The results indicate that price elasticity of rice import from Vietnam and Thailand was inelastic while from other countries, they were elastic. Based on the expenditure elasticity of rice import, rice is the normal goods for rice import from Thailand and USA. The policy simulation shows that the increase in the price of rice import leads to the decrease of rice import.  However, rice import from certain countries such as Thailand still increase. Rice is the staple food, therefore, the government must set up policy to increase domestic rice production for reducing dependency on rice imports.
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