航班延误预测的有效模型研究

M. M, Rebecca Judaist, P. R, R. S, V. S
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摘要

航空公司面临的最重要的业务担忧之一是,由于自然事件和运营和维护缺陷导致的航空公司延误,这是航空公司的额外费用,给最终用户造成了调度和运营问题,可能导致负收入和客户不满。在本研究中,我们使用监督机器学习方法开发了一个两阶段预测模型,用于预测航班准点率。该模型的初始阶段使用二元分类来预测航班延误,而第二阶段使用回归来估计延误时间(以分钟为单位)。本研究比较了决策树分类器与逻辑回归的有效性。基于所创建的模型,该模拟的结果揭示了考虑小时、日、气候等因素的机场预计拥堵情况。因此,花在等待上的时间会更少。
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A Study on an Effective Model for Predicting Flight Delay
Amongst the most significant business concerns that airline companies face is the considerable expenses related to airlines being delays caused due to natural events and operations and maintenance flaws, which is an additional expense for the airlines, having caused scheduling and operations problems for end-users, likely to result in a negative revenue and customer displeasure. We used supervised machine learning approaches in this study to develop a two-stage prediction models for forecasting flight on-time performance. This model's initial stage uses binary classification to predict flight delays, while the second phase uses regression to estimate the delay's duration in minutes. The proposed research compares the effectiveness of decision tree classifier to logistic regression. Based on the created model, the outcomes of this simulation disclose projected congestion in airports, considering hour, day, climate, and so on. As a result, there will be less time spent waiting.
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