使用现金流量要素和模式预测财务困境的影响

Abdussalam Abu Tapanjeh, Banan Al-Matarna
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是利用现金流及其模式的要素来预测财务困境,将(Zmijewski, 1984)和Altman(1968)的模型应用于安曼证券交易所(ASE)上市的工业公司样本,其中20家公司被分类为控制公司、实验公司和测试公司。为了实现研究的目标,本文将分析2010-2017年公司样本研究的现金流量表,并使用Zmijewski和Altman的模型来检验研究预测公司失败能力的方法。为了检验研究的假设,除了通过统计分析程序(E-views9)进行数据效度检验方法外,还使用了多元回归模型方法。研究发现Zmijewski模型和Altman模型对财务困境的预测能力较高。模型一致认为,现金流的第四、第五、第六和第八种模式对预测财务困境有影响,对融资现金流没有影响,第三种模式对预测财务困境没有影响。该研究建议工业公司使用现金流量模式,因为它们的信息内容在识别公司的财务状况方面是有用和准确的。
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The Impact of Using Cash Flow Elements and Patterns to Predict Financial Distress
The study aims at using the elements of cash flows and their patterns in order to anticipate financial distress applying the model of (Zmijewski, 1984) and Altman (1968) to a sample of industrial companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE), in which twenty companies were classified as control, experimental and testing companies. To achieve the objectives of the study, this is to analyze the cash flows statement of companies’ sample study during the period of 2010-2017, and to test the methodology for studying the ability to predict the failure of companies using the model of Zmijewski and Altman. In order to test the hypotheses of the study, multiple regression model method is used in addition to the data validity test methods through statistical analysis program (E-views9). The study concluded that Zmijewski model and Altman model had a high ability to predict financial distress. The models agreed that there was an impact of the fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth patterns of cash flows in predicting Financial Distress, the absence of the impact in financing cash flows and the third pattern in predicting Financial Distress. The study recommends industrial companies to use cash flows patterns because of their informative content that are useful and accurate in identifying the financial position of the companies.
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