新冠肺炎后亚洲的俄中关系:莫斯科的视角

Máté György Vigóczki
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引用次数: 0

摘要

从克里姆林宫的角度来看,新冠肺炎疫情加剧了全球大国竞争,这将导致中美两极分化。莫斯科希望避免陷入这样一种局面:它需要选择站在哪一边,因为俄罗斯要么成为次要伙伴,要么被边缘化。因此,克里姆林宫将发展与北京和欧亚大陆其他国家的双边关系,并将努力寻求多边合作和国际组织(上海合作组织、欧亚经济联盟、联合国),以保留其回旋余地,并保护其在全球政治中的战略自主权。虽然没有发生战略层面的分歧,但疫情暴露出俄中合作的不足。两国之间的军事联盟似乎仍然不可能,俄罗斯的经济联系过于集中在原材料出口上,尽管有一些有前景的项目,比如在北极地区。从长远来看,灵活的战略伙伴关系可能是最适合双方的合作方式,但它们的双边关系将受到各自与西方关系的极大影响。
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Russian-Sino Relations in Post-Covid Asia : Moscow’s Perspective
From the Kremlin’s perspective, the global great power rivalry has intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic, which will result in a US-Chinese bipolarity. Moscow would like to avoid being in a situation where it needs to choose a side because Russia would either become a junior partner or become marginalized. Therefore, the Kremlin will develop its bilateral relations with Beijing and other countries on the Eurasian continent, and it will try to find multilateral cooperations and international organizations (SCO, EEU, UN) to preserve its room to manoeuvre and protect its own strategic autonomy in global politics. The pandemic has shown the deficiency of the cooperation between Russia and China, although no strategic-level disagreement has occurred. A military alliance still seems impossible between the two countries, with Russia’s economic ties overly focused on the export of raw materials, although there are promising projects, for example, in the Arctic region. In the long term, a flexible strategic partnership could be the most suitable way of cooperation for the parties, but their bilateral relations will be greatly influenced by their respective relations with the West.
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