经济预期、社会资本和希望对移民请求和行动的影响

Ş. Keleş
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文在新古典经济学理论和行为经济学思想的范围内,运用实证方法考察了影响移民需求和移民行为的因素。采用结构方程模型对选定样本的调查结果进行了分析。移民与经济预期、社会资本和希望之间存在线性关系。研究发现,经济预期变量对个人移民决策和移民意愿有很强的负向影响(γ = -0.99;T = -17.87)。希望变量对个体的迁移决策和迁移意愿有很强的负向影响(γ = -0.96;T = -13.66)。社会资本秘密变量对个体的移民决策和移民意愿有负向调节作用(γ = -0.48;T = -8.19)。人们认为,经济和政治形势对个人移徙的决定是有效的。
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THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC EXPECTATION, SOCIAL CAPITAL AND HOPE ON MIGRATION REQUEST AND ACTION
In this study, the factors affecting the request and action of migration are examined with empirical method within the scope of neoclassical economic theories and behavioral economic thought. A survey of a selected sample was analyzed with structural equation modeling. There was a linear relationship between migration and economic expectation, social capital and hope. It was found that the Economic Expectation Variable had a very strong negative effect on individuals’ decision to immigrate and desire to migrate (γ = -0.99; t = -17.87). Hope variable has a very strong negative effect on individuals’ migration decision and desire to migrate (γ = -0.96; t = -13.66). The Social Capital Secret Variable has a negatively moderate effect on individuals’ decision to immigrate and desire to migrate (γ = -0.48; t = -8.19). It was seen that economic and political conjuncture was effective in the decision of migration of individuals.
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