使用时间序列分析的短期负荷预测:新加坡的案例研究

Jianguang Deng, P. Jirutitijaroen
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引用次数: 44

摘要

本文采用时间序列分析方法对新加坡短期电力需求进行预测。提出了两种时间序列模型,即乘法分解模型和季节ARIMA模型。对两种模型的预测误差进行了计算和比较。结果表明,两种时间序列模型均能准确预测新加坡短期需求,且乘法分解模型略优于季节性ARIMA模型。
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Short-term load forecasting using time series analysis: A case study for Singapore
This paper presents time series analysis for short-term Singapore electricity demand forecasting. Two time series models are proposed, namely, the multiplicative decomposition model and the seasonal ARIMA Model. Forecasting errors of both models are computed and compared. Results show that both time series models can accurately predict the short-term Singapore demand and that the Multiplicative decomposition model slightly outperforms the seasonal ARIMA model.
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