The dynamics of an undergraduate study program: ‘Limits to growth’

The dynamic behavior of a complex system of an undergraduate program in a university is examined. Specifically, by means of System Dynamics Simulation, a model to represent the interrelated variables of the system is developed. The model has passed three different model tests to assess its expediency to reflect the actual system. The simulation result indicates that a growth-and-decline pattern is identifiable. The result suggests that the `limits to growth' archetype occurs within the system. Six scenarios of system improvement are proposed. Basically, the improvement scenarios attempt to reduce or eliminate the effects of limiting variables in the system. Scenarios #5 which combines improved new lecturers' recruitment procedure, improved plan for infrastructure investment, and a better budget allocation provides the best result.