科学认识中国经济发展的基本面

Tai-Hsin Huang
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摘要

本文的研究目的是基于中国的经济基本面。要素投入、结构优化和体制改革决定着中国经济发展的基本面,将积极支撑中国经济长期持续稳定增长,使中国经济潜在增长率长期稳定在合理区间。一国经济发展的基本面是由该国的主要因素及其长期趋势所决定的经济运行的基本情况,具有稳定性、内部性和持久性等特点。“稳”是指经济运行在一定发展阶段保持在合理增长区间内的相对稳定,不排除在某些年份受短期意外因素影响出现异常波动。例如,改革开放以来,中国经济的基本面是持续高速增长的。原创性/价值内部性是指支撑一国经济发展的一切要素的内在数量和质量,尤指在某一特定阶段对一国经济发展起决定性作用的要素的数量和质量。例如,改革开放以来,人口红利和资本形成支撑了中国经济的高速增长。
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Scientific understanding of the fundamentals of China's economic development
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is based on China’s economic fundamentals. Factor input, structural optimization and institutional reform, which determine the fundamentals of China's economic development, will actively prop up long-term, sustained and stable growth of the Chinese economy and keep China's potential economic growth rate stabilized within a reasonable growth range in the long term.Design/methodology/approachThe fundamentals of economic development of a country are the basic situation of economic operation determined by the country's main factors and the long-term trend thereof, and they have such characteristics as stability, internality and persistence.FindingsStability refers to economic operation that remains relatively stable within a reasonable growth range at a certain stage of development, and this does not rule out exceptional economic fluctuations in certain years due to the impact of unexpected short-term factors. For instance, the fundamentals of the Chinese economy during the period after the reform and opening-up are characterized by a sustained high growth rate.Originality/valueInternality refers to the intrinsic quantity and quality of all factors supporting the economic development of a country, especially the quantity and quality of the factors that play a decisive role in the economic development of a country at a specific stage. For instance, demographic dividend and capital formation have bolstered the high-speed growth of the Chinese economy since the reform and opening-up.
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