随机参数负二项模型在交通事故严重程度关系检验中的应用

Fangyuan Li, Kun Jiang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

交通事故伤害是世界第八大死亡原因,严重影响经济发展和生活稳定。为了探讨中国重大道路交通事故严重程度的影响因素,从366起重大事故的统计数据中选取潜在影响因素。分别采用固定参数和随机参数负二项模型对事故数据建立模型。结果表明,地理区域、事故发生时间和日期、道路行政等级、季节、事故类型、道路线形和交通违法行为数量与事故严重程度显著相关。严格对驾驶员的管理是提高事故伤害程度的有效途径。
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Application of Random-parameter Negative Binomial Model to Examine the Relationship between the Severity of Traffic Accident
Traffic accident injury is the eighth leading cause of death in the world, which seriously affects economic development and life stability. In order to explore the influencing factors of the severity of major road traffic accidents in China, potential influencing factors were selected from the statistical data of 366 major accidents. Fixed-parameter and random-parameter negative binomial model were respectively used to build models for accidents data. The results show that geographical zone, time and date of accident, road administrative grade, season, accident type, road alignment and number of traffic violation behavior are significantly related to the accident severity. Strict management of drivers is an effective way to improve the degree of accident injury.
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