阿尔及利亚检验Okun定律的有效性:Maki协整与分位数回归结果是否存在差异?

Moussa Chenini, Hicham Ayad, Manel Attouchi, M. Dahmani
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引用次数: 1

摘要

研究背景本文采用差距和差异模型考察了1970-2020年阿尔及利亚奥肯定律的存在性。本文的主要目的是计量经济学检验,探索和检验失业率和经济增长之间的关系,以便对阿尔及利亚的失业有一个明确的解释。研究方法首先采用Kapetanios单位根检验和Maki协整检验对缺口模型进行处理,对这种情况下的结构断裂进行系数估计;其次,对差异模型采用分位数回归;最后,本研究使用了三类因果检验。结果无论在差距模型还是差异模型中,失业率都不受研究期间产出的影响。因此,奥肯定律在阿尔及利亚不成立。这项研究以不同的方式关注奥肯定律。后者在单位根和协整分析中都进行了结构断裂。另一方面,本研究首次在检验奥肯定律时使用了分位数回归。在同样的思路下,本研究在Maki协整和分位数回归中引入了不对称分析。
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Testing the Validity of Okun’s Law in Algeria: Is there a difference between Maki’s Cointegration and Quantile’s Regression Results?
Abstract Research background This paper examines the existence of Okun’s law in Algeria over the period of 1970–2020 using both the gap and differences model. Purpose The main objective of this paper is to econometrically examine, explore and test the nexus among unemployment rate and economic growth, in order to have a clear explanation about unemployment in Algeria. Research methodology Firstly, the Kapetanios unit root test and Maki cointegration test are employed for the gap model to deal with the structural breaks than the estimation of the coefficients in this case, secondly, the quantile regression is used for the differences model; finally, three categories of causality tests are used in this research. Results The findings revealed that unemployment rates are not affected by output over the period of study both in the gap and differences model. Hence, Okun’s law is not held in Algeria. Novelty The study focused on Okun’s law in different ways. This latter carries out structural breaks in both the unit root and co-integration analysis. On the other hand, the study uses the quantile regression for the first time in the examination of Okun’s law. In the same line of thought, this research introduces an asymmetric analysis in the Maki cointegration and quantile regression.
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