境外机构投资者与市场收益波动:来自对称和非对称模型的证据

Faisal Usmani, Atif Ghayas, Mohd Shamshad
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摘要

摘要本文分别利用广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)和指数广义自回归条件异方差(EGARCH)等对称和非对称波动模型实证研究了外国机构投资者对印度市场收益波动的影响。本研究采用Nifty 50收益和外国机构投资者从2000年开始的每日买入、卖出和净投资,以及从2009年开始的每日买入、卖出和净投资两个样本进行。虚拟变量用于全球金融危机,这大大增加了Nifty 50回报率的波动性。研究发现,在大多数情况下,外国机构投资者降低了印度市场的波动性,而外国机构投资者的净投资增加了印度市场的波动性。此外,该研究超越了以往的研究,在相同的数据样本上采用对称和不对称模型,并观察到本研究的结果在很大程度上取决于数据的频率和方法的选择。研究建议,短期内应采取一些资本管制措施,鼓励长期投资。
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Foreign institutional investors and market return volatility: Evidence from symmetric and asymmetric models
Abstract This paper empirically investigates the impact of foreign institutional investors on Indian market returns volatility using symmetric and asymmetric volatility models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) respectively. The study has been conducted on two samples using Nifty 50 returns and foreign institutional investors purchase, sale and net investment from the year 2000 in whole sample and from the year 2009 in sub sample on daily basis. The dummy variable is used for global financial crisis that has significantly increased the volatility of Nifty 50 returns. The study has found that foreign institutional investors reduce the volatility in Indian market in most of the cases while net investment by foreign institutional investors increase the volatility of Indian markets. Furthermore, the study has surpassed previous studies by employing symmetric and asymmetric models on same sample of data and in observing that the outcome of this study is largely dependent on frequency of the data and selection of the methodology. The study suggested that there should be some capital control measures in short term and encourage long-term investment.
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