Rice Self-sufficiency in Bhutan: An Assessment

Aims: Rice is the essential food grain in Bhutan and its availability directly translates to national food security and stability. Although there are several previous studies on production technologies, varietal adaptabilities and ecology-based information on rice in Bhutan, there is a dearth of information on rice self-sufficiency based on historical production and consumption data. Therefore, objectives of this study are to: i) evaluate rice production and consumption trends; ii) assess current and future rice self-sufficiency, and iii) identify appropriate policy and technical interventions required to enhance rice self-sufficiency. Methodology: Rice production and consumption data of past fifteen years (2005-2019) was gathered from secondary sources and analysed using descriptive statistics, linear equations, and linear regressions. Results: The study found that the ratio of rice self-sufficiency had declined due to increase in consumption and decrease in production over the past one and half decades. The rice cultivated area reduced to 30314 acres in 2019 from 46586 acres in 2015, while the productivity of milled rice climbed from 0.76 to 1.07 tonnes per acre in the same period. Further, the analysis revealed that the rice self-sufficiency ratio ranged between 34.7 and 51.03 while the   demand for rice had escalated from 81458 tonnes in 2005 to 101082 tonnes in 2019. This implies that more than half of the rice consumed was imported, particularly from India to meet the demand of the country. The average per capita consumption of milled rice in Bhutan was assessed to be 147.7 kg which led to huge rise in import dependency ratio. It saw a growth in import value in Ngultrum by 297% during the study period. Projections from this study shows that per capita rice consumption will rise to 163 kg in 2030, with a rice deficit equal to the volume required for 73% of the estimated population. Conclusion: If current production and consumption trends continue, the ratio of rice self-sufficiency is likely to decline steadily in the coming years with negative impact on country’s trade balance. This study recommends three different strategies: (1) increasing yield, (2) expanding the area, and (3) decreasing consumption to increase the self-sufficiency in rice. These strategies must be persuaded collectively through crop extensification and intensification. Given the limited arable land, the recommendations include reverting to fallow land, adopting improved high-yielding varieties, expanding irrigation, adopting improved plant and soil management techniques, adopting labour-saving technologies, promoting upland rice, and rice double cropping, among many. On the policy front, it is vital to increase rice farming's economic viability and attractiveness through increasing subsidies, support systems, and incentives. A change in consumption pattern and food diversification can be suggested as another long-term approach towards achieving rice self-sufficiency.