Grocery Shopping Behaviour in the Era of Covid-19: Panel Data Analysis from Convenience Store Sector in England, Scotland and Wales

ABSTRACT. To the best of our knowledge this is the first attempt to address the consistencies and inconsistencies between the grocery shopping behaviour shifts in the era of Covid-19 across three devolved nations of the mainland UK. We address the strictness of ‘lockdown style’ closure and containment policies that primarily restrict people’s behaviour (stringency index). We use a unique dataset of transactional data (778,305 observations) drawn from 1,282 convenience stores located in England, Scotland and Wales. Panel data analysis covers the pre-pandemic (Jan 2018 – Feb 2020) and pandemic period (March 2020 – Dec 2020). This research reveals that, despite the consistent decrease of single item transactions and increase of average spend per transaction across England, Scotland and Wales, the dynamics of these shifts in time varies meaningfully. All these shifts highly correlate with the stringency index. Analysis of additional explanatory variables i.e. store size, location, affiliation shows further dimensions.