尼日利亚的汇率与失业:一个分析

E. Ani, Emmanuel Joel, Mamman Andekujwo Baajon
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引用次数: 1

摘要

今天尼日利亚面临的严重挑战之一是失业。在宏观经济学中,对影响失业的变量进行了大量的研究。考虑到近年来的汇率波动影响了尼日利亚经济的大部分主要变量,本文使用31年(1986 - 2017)的年度数据研究了尼日利亚汇率与失业率的关系。为了达到本文的目的,采用具有分布滞后的自回归模型来找出实际汇率与国家失业率之间的关系。使用的变量是失业率、实际汇率、实际国内生产总值(RGDP)、出口价值指数;和进口价值索引。研究发现,在此期间,实际汇率对失业率有正向影响。汇率高,失业率高。本文建议努力增加外汇收入的供给,以减少对外汇收入的过度需求。这将导致生产更多的商品,因为为这种生产而建立的工业将从失业者中吸收更多的劳动力。关键词:失业;汇率;汽车-回归;
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Exchange Rate and Unemployment in Nigeria: An Analysis
One of the serious challenges to Nigeria today is Unemployment. There have been many studies to investigate variables which affect unemployment in macroeconomics. Considering exchange rate volatility in recent years which has affected most of major variables of Nigerian economy, this paper investigated the relationship between Exchange rate and Unemployment in Nigeria using annual data of Thirty-one Years (1986 to 2017). In order to achieve the objective of the paper, Autoregressive Model with distributed Lag was used to find out the relationship between Real Exchange rate and Unemployment in the country. The Variables used are Unemployment rate, Real Exchange rate, Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Export Value index; and Import Value index. It was found that Real Exchange Rate has positive effect on unemployment during the period. With high exchange rate, unemployment rate increases. The paper advises for efforts to increase supply of foreign exchange earnings in the country so as to curtail excess demand for it. This will lead to producing more goods as industries that would be established for such production will absorb more workforces out of the unemployed. Key Words: Unemployment; Exchange rate; Auto- regression;
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