中印竞争的全球和区域影响:战略和经济层面的关注

Saddam Hosen
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摘要

本文试图回答两个关键问题。首先,中印冲突的战略和经济影响是什么?第二,未来中印冲突的全球和地区趋势是什么?尽管有很多关于中印关系和冲突的文献,但对中印冲突影响的学术关注要少得多,尤其是在硬实力方面。文章认为,在国际和地区事务中,中印竞争并不是一个新现象。近年来,印度和中国之间的争端对亚洲地区的和平与安全构成了重大的地缘战略挑战。该报告进一步指出,印度和中国之间的地缘政治竞争可能会增强中国海军在印度洋地区的存在,以挑战印度及其西方盟友。就经济层面而言,印度及其西方盟友,如美国和日本,可以在印度洋地区发展新的供应链,以减少中国的依赖。文章认为,虽然中印冲突的未来可能带来巨大的竞争而不是合作,但经济体系和跨国发展的现实可能使印度和中国能够扩大经济合作。
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Global and Regional Implications of Sino-Indian Rivalry: A Focus on the Strategic and Economic Dimensions
The paper makes an effort to answer two key questions. To begin, what strategic and economic implications does the Sino-Indian conflict have? Second, what are the global and regional trends in Sino-India conflict in the future? Even though there is a lot of literature on Sino-Indian ties and conflict, there’s much less academic concentration on the implications of Sino-Indian conflict, especially in the hard power dimension. The paper observes that in international and regional affairs, the Sino-Indian competition is not a new phenomenon. The dispute between India and China has posed significant geostrategic challenges to regional peace and security in Asia in recent years. The paper further points out that the geopolitical rivalry between India and China would likely enhance China's naval presence in the Indian Ocean region to challenge India and its western allies. In terms of the economic dimension, India and its western allies, such as the United States and Japan, can develop new supply chains in IOR in order to diminish China's reliance. It argues that while the future of the Sino-Indian conflict may bring great competition rather than cooperation, the reality of the economic system and transnational developments may enable India and China to expand their economic collaboration.
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