An Assessment of Coup Activity in the African Union's First Ten Years

The coup d’etat was once described as “the most visible and recurrent characteristic of the African political experience” (Decalo 1990). In its first decade, the African Union has witnessed a precipitous decline in coup activity. This paper examines the role of the African Union in this decline. Coups are by no means obsolete, and recent events in countries such as Madagascar and Niger suggest the AU is limited in its ability to restore fallen leaders. Still, the AU has had an important role in preventing coup attempts by significantly altering the cost-benefit structure for potential challengers and have successfully deterred illegal seizures of power. Political opponents now avoid attempting coups due to the expectation of sanctions and long-term costs of regional condemnation. This claim is supported with bivariate data from 1950-2010 and multivariate analyses that test the impact of the AU versus other common determinants of coups for the years 1963 to 2009.