There has been substantial debate on whether the argument that warfare enhances state capacity can be applied to contexts other than Western Europe. The argument in this paper is that the relationship between war and fiscal capacity is conditional on the ethnic composition of the population. More specifically, ethnic heterogeneity and ethnic dissimilarity should result in higher illegibility of the society to the state. This illegibility should make the returns from investment in fiscal capacity lower and consequently ethnically heterogeneous and dissimilar populations should hinder state's investment and increases in fiscal capacity during wartime. These expectations are tested and confirmed with an original local-level fiscal revenue data set in the late Ottoman Empire. Wartime changes in local-level fiscal revenues are higher in ethnically more homogeneous and also in ethnically more similar provinces.
{"title":"Ethnic Composition, Legibility and the Conditional Effect of War on Fiscal Capacity","authors":"Yusuf Magiya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3684162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3684162","url":null,"abstract":"There has been substantial debate on whether the argument that warfare enhances state capacity can be applied to contexts other than Western Europe. The argument in this paper is that the relationship between war and fiscal capacity is conditional on the ethnic composition of the population. More specifically, ethnic heterogeneity and ethnic dissimilarity should result in higher illegibility of the society to the state. This illegibility should make the returns from investment in fiscal capacity lower and consequently ethnically heterogeneous and dissimilar populations should hinder state's investment and increases in fiscal capacity during wartime. These expectations are tested and confirmed with an original local-level fiscal revenue data set in the late Ottoman Empire. Wartime changes in local-level fiscal revenues are higher in ethnically more homogeneous and also in ethnically more similar provinces.","PeriodicalId":187160,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Political Institutions & Conflict (Topic)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130564973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daron Acemoglu, Giuseppe De Feo, G. Luca, G. Russo
The recent ascent of right-wing populist movements in many countries has rekindled interest in understanding the causes of the rise of Fascism in inter-war years. In this paper, we argue that there was a strong link between the surge of support for the Socialist Party after World War I (WWI) and the subsequent emergence of Fascism in Italy. We first develop a source of variation in Socialist support across Italian municipalities in the 1919 election based on war casualties from the area. We show that these casualties are unrelated to a battery of political, economic and social variables before the war and had a major impact on Socialist support (partly because the Socialists were the main anti-war political movement). Our main result is that this boost to Socialist support (that is “exogenous” to the prior political leaning of the municipality) led to greater local Fascist activity as measured by local party branches and Fascist political violence (squadrismo), and to significantly larger vote share of the Fascist Party in the 1924 election. We document that the increase in the vote share of the Fascist Party was not at the expense of the Socialist Party and instead came from right-wing parties, thus supporting our interpretation that center-right and right-wing voters coalesced around the Fascist Party because of the “red scare”. We also show that the veterans did not consistently support the Fascist Party and there is no evidence for greater nationalist sentiment in areas with more casualties. We provide evidence that landowner associations and greater presence of local elites played an important role in the rise of Fascism. Finally, we find greater likelihood of Jewish deportations in 1943-45 and lower vote share for Christian Democrats after World War II in areas with greater early Fascist activity.
{"title":"War, Socialism and the Rise of Fascism: An Empirical Exploration","authors":"Daron Acemoglu, Giuseppe De Feo, G. Luca, G. Russo","doi":"10.3386/W27854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W27854","url":null,"abstract":"The recent ascent of right-wing populist movements in many countries has rekindled interest in understanding the causes of the rise of Fascism in inter-war years. In this paper, we argue that there was a strong link between the surge of support for the Socialist Party after World War I (WWI) and the subsequent emergence of Fascism in Italy. We first develop a source of variation in Socialist support across Italian municipalities in the 1919 election based on war casualties from the area. We show that these casualties are unrelated to a battery of political, economic and social variables before the war and had a major impact on Socialist support (partly because the Socialists were the main anti-war political movement). Our main result is that this boost to Socialist support (that is “exogenous” to the prior political leaning of the municipality) led to greater local Fascist activity as measured by local party branches and Fascist political violence (squadrismo), and to significantly larger vote share of the Fascist Party in the 1924 election. We document that the increase in the vote share of the Fascist Party was not at the expense of the Socialist Party and instead came from right-wing parties, thus supporting our interpretation that center-right and right-wing voters coalesced around the Fascist Party because of the “red scare”. We also show that the veterans did not consistently support the Fascist Party and there is no evidence for greater nationalist sentiment in areas with more casualties. We provide evidence that landowner associations and greater presence of local elites played an important role in the rise of Fascism. Finally, we find greater likelihood of Jewish deportations in 1943-45 and lower vote share for Christian Democrats after World War II in areas with greater early Fascist activity.","PeriodicalId":187160,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Political Institutions & Conflict (Topic)","volume":"112 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132598763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I model the dynamic between ruler and successor. The ruler wants to cultivate a successor for a smooth power transition but fears being ousted by him, while the successor fears being removed by the ruler; these mutual fears may induce ruler--successor conflict. Each party follows a non-monotonic equilibrium strategy. The successor accumulates power while not threatening the ruler, and he prolongs their relationship by maintaining a low profile. The ruler gradually becomes more intolerant of the successor's growing power but, as her life nears its end, has less incentive to replace him. Thus conflict is most probable in the middle of their relationship. Although an institutionalized procedure may render conflict less likely, a predetermined succession order could increase its likelihood by restricting the ruler's optimal time to select a successor. If there are two candidates then a ruler prefers the weaker one only if their capabilities are similar.
{"title":"The Last Step to the Throne, the Conflict between Monarchs and Crown Princes","authors":"Congyi Zhou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3561255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3561255","url":null,"abstract":"I model the dynamic between ruler and successor. The ruler wants to cultivate a successor for a smooth power transition but fears being ousted by him, while the successor fears being removed by the ruler; these mutual fears may induce ruler--successor conflict. Each party follows a non-monotonic equilibrium strategy. The successor accumulates power while not threatening the ruler, and he prolongs their relationship by maintaining a low profile. The ruler gradually becomes more intolerant of the successor's growing power but, as her life nears its end, has less incentive to replace him. Thus conflict is most probable in the middle of their relationship. Although an institutionalized procedure may render conflict less likely, a predetermined succession order could increase its likelihood by restricting the ruler's optimal time to select a successor. If there are two candidates then a ruler prefers the weaker one only if their capabilities are similar.","PeriodicalId":187160,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Political Institutions & Conflict (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133139469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The issue of mental trauma suffered during combat is one that has plagued militaries for as long as wars have been waged. Caring for those who have served their nations should be a top priority for the health sector of any standing army. However, the issues plaguing service personnel, specifically those within armed forces, are a difficult problem for policymakers and military superiors alike. The objective of this study is to analyze mental healthcare administrations in Canada, the U.S. and U.K. within the context of three independent variables: training initiatives, discharge policies and compensation and the role of veterans' organizations in care delivery and advocacy. Through the lens of institutional theory, this thesis will argue that some countries employ more effective tactics than others at mitigating their mental health burden. It will demonstrate that the degree to which institutions are centralized is directly related to the effectiveness with which mental health is addressed. Mental health administration in armed forces is a topic rarely, if at all, analyzed in political science and policy literature. Policymakers have a multitude of medical studies at their disposal, but few studies that suggest manners in which governance and administration can be altered to improve services. This thesis will fill that gap and provide a foundation for future research in the politics of mental healthcare in armed forces.
{"title":"A Duty to Serve, a Duty to Provide: A Comparative Analysis of Mental Health Delivery in the Armed Forces of Canada, U.K and U.S.","authors":"K. O'Brien","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3198272","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3198272","url":null,"abstract":"The issue of mental trauma suffered during combat is one that has plagued militaries for as long as wars have been waged. Caring for those who have served their nations should be a top priority for the health sector of any standing army. However, the issues plaguing service personnel, specifically those within armed forces, are a difficult problem for policymakers and military superiors alike. The objective of this study is to analyze mental healthcare administrations in Canada, the U.S. and U.K. within the context of three independent variables: training initiatives, discharge policies and compensation and the role of veterans' organizations in care delivery and advocacy. Through the lens of institutional theory, this thesis will argue that some countries employ more effective tactics than others at mitigating their mental health burden. It will demonstrate that the degree to which institutions are centralized is directly related to the effectiveness with which mental health is addressed. Mental health administration in armed forces is a topic rarely, if at all, analyzed in political science and policy literature. Policymakers have a multitude of medical studies at their disposal, but few studies that suggest manners in which governance and administration can be altered to improve services. This thesis will fill that gap and provide a foundation for future research in the politics of mental healthcare in armed forces.","PeriodicalId":187160,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Political Institutions & Conflict (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115709647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The coup d’etat was once described as “the most visible and recurrent characteristic of the African political experience” (Decalo 1990). In its first decade, the African Union has witnessed a precipitous decline in coup activity. This paper examines the role of the African Union in this decline. Coups are by no means obsolete, and recent events in countries such as Madagascar and Niger suggest the AU is limited in its ability to restore fallen leaders. Still, the AU has had an important role in preventing coup attempts by significantly altering the cost-benefit structure for potential challengers and have successfully deterred illegal seizures of power. Political opponents now avoid attempting coups due to the expectation of sanctions and long-term costs of regional condemnation. This claim is supported with bivariate data from 1950-2010 and multivariate analyses that test the impact of the AU versus other common determinants of coups for the years 1963 to 2009.
{"title":"An Assessment of Coup Activity in the African Union's First Ten Years","authors":"Jonathan M Powell, Trace C. Lasley","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2462586","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2462586","url":null,"abstract":"The coup d’etat was once described as “the most visible and recurrent characteristic of the African political experience” (Decalo 1990). In its first decade, the African Union has witnessed a precipitous decline in coup activity. This paper examines the role of the African Union in this decline. Coups are by no means obsolete, and recent events in countries such as Madagascar and Niger suggest the AU is limited in its ability to restore fallen leaders. Still, the AU has had an important role in preventing coup attempts by significantly altering the cost-benefit structure for potential challengers and have successfully deterred illegal seizures of power. Political opponents now avoid attempting coups due to the expectation of sanctions and long-term costs of regional condemnation. This claim is supported with bivariate data from 1950-2010 and multivariate analyses that test the impact of the AU versus other common determinants of coups for the years 1963 to 2009.","PeriodicalId":187160,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Political Institutions & Conflict (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126682535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper identifies the absence of a clear concept of violence as an obstacle to research on its causes and consequences. Standard practice in the proliferating literatures on political violence is to use damage measured in casualties as a surrogate. But damage can be produced nonviolently and, depending on how it is theorized, violence, per se, might not result in damage. After analyzing the costs of avoiding the conceptual and definitional problems involved in the study of violence, we present a concept of violence that can be directly and unambiguously operationalized as a sudden and drastic increase in the scale of negative values at stake in an encounter. The paper reports the results of computer assisted agent-based modeling experiments designed to evaluate the consistency, transparency, precision, and heuristic power of thinking about violence in this way. The substantive focus of these experiments is the relationship between violence and the integrity of political regimes within whose ambit it occurs. Results of the experiments are reported and analyzed in terms of intuitions and expectations about the relationship between violence and regime stability. These findings are interpreted as corroboration of the plausibility and promise of the paper’s conceptualization of violence.
{"title":"Violence and Regime Stability: A Conceptual and Experimental Approach","authors":"Ian S. Lustick","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2822856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2822856","url":null,"abstract":"This paper identifies the absence of a clear concept of violence as an obstacle to research on its causes and consequences. Standard practice in the proliferating literatures on political violence is to use damage measured in casualties as a surrogate. But damage can be produced nonviolently and, depending on how it is theorized, violence, per se, might not result in damage. After analyzing the costs of avoiding the conceptual and definitional problems involved in the study of violence, we present a concept of violence that can be directly and unambiguously operationalized as a sudden and drastic increase in the scale of negative values at stake in an encounter. The paper reports the results of computer assisted agent-based modeling experiments designed to evaluate the consistency, transparency, precision, and heuristic power of thinking about violence in this way. The substantive focus of these experiments is the relationship between violence and the integrity of political regimes within whose ambit it occurs. Results of the experiments are reported and analyzed in terms of intuitions and expectations about the relationship between violence and regime stability. These findings are interpreted as corroboration of the plausibility and promise of the paper’s conceptualization of violence.","PeriodicalId":187160,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Political Institutions & Conflict (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131413794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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