基于元胞自动机的感染传播建模与仿真

Shuang Zhou, S. Bin, Gengxin Sun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

基于元胞自动机,结合隔室模型,提出了能够反映传染病实际传播过程的SEIDRS模型。该模型结合人口密度、性别比、年龄结构等因素,规则了模型的演化规律。利用Matlab对该模型进行仿真,仿真结果表明,种群密度越大,传染病传播速度越快;性别比例在某些方面存在差异,性别人数较多,影响因子高,对传染病传播的影响更为明显;年龄结构存在差异,城市中老年人较多,体质较轻的人对传染病的防御能力较低,适当的年龄分布对抵御传染病的传播发挥了更积极的作用。
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Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Propagation Based on Cellular Automata
Based on cellular automaton, combine compartment model, proposed SEIDRS model that can reflect the actual propagation process of infectious diseases. This model combined with factors such as population density, sexual proportion and age structure, rules the evolution rules of the model. Using Matlab to simulate the model, the simulation results show that the larger population density, the infectious disease propagation faster; There are differences in some aspects in sexual proportion, sexual have larger number and high impact factor, make more obvious effects on the spread of infectious diseases; There are differences in age structure, the city have more aged and light people have lower defense capability to infectious diseases, the appropriate age distribution play a more active role to resist the spread of infectious diseases.
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