气候变化下纽约市阵风预测

D. Comarazamy, J. Gonzalez-Cruz, Y. Andreopoulos
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引用次数: 1

摘要

为了确定纽约市气候变化对未来风暴事件频率和强度的潜在影响,提出了一种统计降尺度技术。首先,使用1973年至2017年期间约翰·肯尼迪(JFK)和拉瓜迪亚(LGA)机场的气象站数据确定了一个历史基准。利用这些历史信息对近未来(2011-2050)全球环流模式(GCM)输出进行偏倚校正(ORNL RegCM4;RCP 8.5)。结果显示,与历史数据期相比,2017-2050年期间,纽约市预计将在气候变暖的情况下经历更大的阵风,最极端的事件预计将产生约110英里/小时的最大阵风,比过去80英里/小时的最大阵风有显著增加。历史上700年的回归期事件估计为115英里/小时,而整个700年的事件(历史和预测)估计为124英里/小时。预计最大日阵风的最极端情况将发生在冬季和早春季节。预计热带风暴的数量没有增加,但预计风暴的强度将高于历史时期。极端风事件的这些变化可能会对纽约市的城市规划、潜在的停电、交通中断、对建筑结构的影响和公共安全产生严重影响。
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Projections of Wind Gusts for New York City Under a Changing Climate
To determine potential changes in the frequency and intensity of future storm events due to climate change in New York City (NYC), a statistical downscaling technique is proposed. First, a historical benchmark was determined using weather station data from the John F. Kennedy (JFK) and La Guardia (LGA) airports for the period 1973–2017. This historical information was used to perform the bias-correction exercise of near-future (2011–2050) global circulation model (GCM) output (ORNL RegCM4; RCP 8.5). Results show that NYC is projected to experience higher wind gusts under a warming climate for the period 2017–2050 in comparison with the historical data period, with the most extreme event projected to produce a maximum wind gust of approximately 110 mph, a significant increase over the past maximum of 80 mph. The historical 700-year return period event was estimated at 115 mph, while the overall 700-year event (historical and projected) is estimated at 124 mph. The most extreme cases of maximum daily wind gusts are projected to occur during the winter and early spring seasons. No increase in the number of projected tropical storms was observed, but the intensity of the storms is projected to be higher than during the historical period. These changes in extreme wind events could have serious implications for NYC in terms of urban planning, potential power outages, transportation disruptions, impacts on building structures, and public safety.
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