基于专家系统的航班中断影响评估

Bingjie Liang, Fujun Wang, Jun Bi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

当飞行发生异常时,如果前一个航班不能按计划起飞,会影响后续航班,造成向下冲击。因此,航空公司往往采取不同的恢复措施(包括航班延误、航班取消、飞机互换等)来消除或减轻下行影响。在评估恢复计划的利弊时,一般会考虑延误损失、航班取消损失和飞机交换损失。然而,实际上,在衡量这些损失时,忽略了许多复杂的因素,如航班延误造成的机组人员和旅客的饮食、交通和住宿费用,以及延误赔偿等。专家系统适用于无数据或数据少、业务逻辑复杂的情况,将专家系统引入航班中断影响评估是民航领域人工智能的探索。专家系统对航班中断影响的评估不仅量化了恢复方案的效益,而且为评估现有模型和算法的优缺点提供了一定的参考。
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Flight disruption impact assessment based on expert system
When an abnormal flight occurs, if the previous flight cannot take off as planned, it will affect the subsequent flight, resulting in a downward impact. Therefore, airlines often adopt different recovery measures (including flight delays, flight cancellations, aircraft swaps, etc.) to eliminate or mitigate the downward impact. When evaluating the pros and cons of the recovery plan, the loss of delay, loss of flight cancellation and loss of aircraft exchange are generally considered. However, in fact, many complex factors are ignored when measuring these losses, such as food, transportation and accommodation costs of crew and passengers caused by flight delay, and compensation for delay, etc. Expert systems are suitable for situations where no or little data is available and the business logic is complex, and their introduction into flight disruption impact assessment is an exploration of artificial intelligence in civil aviation. The evaluation of the impact of flight disruptions by an expert system not only quantifies the benefits of recovery solutions, but also provides some reference for evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of existing models and algorithms.
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