利率下行刚性

Grégory Levieuge, Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc
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引用次数: 8

摘要

经验证据表明,银行贷款利率是向下刚性的:银行倾向于更缓慢、更不完全地调整利率,以适应短期市场利率的下降,而不是上升。我们通过在宏观金融动态随机一般均衡模型中引入不对称银行贷款利率调整成本来研究这种向下利率刚性的宏观经济后果。将模型校准到欧元区经济,我们发现GDP对类似幅度的积极和消极经济冲击的初始反应差异可以达到25%。这意味着央行必须大幅下调政策利率,才能对GDP产生对称的中期影响。我们还表明,当政策利率停留在有效下限时,利率下行刚性更强,进一步扰乱了货币政策传导。这些发现表明,忽视零售利率调整的不对称性可能会导致错误的货币政策决策。
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Downward Interest Rate Rigidity
Empirical evidence suggests that bank lending rates are downward rigid: banks tend to adjust their rates more slowly and less completely to short-term market rates decreases than to increases. We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of this downward interest rate rigidity by introducing asymmetric bank lending rate adjustment costs in a macrofinance dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Calibrating the model to the euro area economy, we find that the difference in the initial response of GDP to positive and negative economic shocks of similar amplitude can reach up to 25%. This means that a central bank would have to cut its policy rate much more to obtain a symmetric medium-run impact on GDP. We also show that downward interest rate rigidity is stronger when policy rates are stuck at their effective lower bound, further disrupting monetary policy transmission. These findings imply that neglecting asymmetry in retail interest rate adjustments may yield misguided monetary policy decisions.
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