While official statistics provide lagged and aggregate information on the housing market, extensive information is available publicly on real-estate websites. By web scraping them for the UK on a daily basis, this paper extracts a large database from which we build timelier and highly granular indicators. One originality of the dataset is to provide the sellers’ perspective, allowing to compute innovative indicators of the housing market such as the numb er of new posted offers or how prices fluctuate over time for existing offers. Matching selling prices in our dataset with transacted prices from the notarial database using machine learning techniques allows us to measure the negotiation margin of buyers – an innovation to the literature. During the Covid-19 crisis, these indicators demonstrate the freezing of the market and the “wait-and-see” behaviour of sellers. They also show that prices have been increasing in rural regions after the lockdown but experienced a continued decline in London.
{"title":"Web Scraping Housing Prices in Real-time: the Covid-19 Crisis in the UK","authors":"Jean-Charles Bricongne, Baptiste Meunier, Sylvain Pouget","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3916196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3916196","url":null,"abstract":"While official statistics provide lagged and aggregate information on the housing market, extensive information is available publicly on real-estate websites. By web scraping them for the UK on a daily basis, this paper extracts a large database from which we build timelier and highly granular indicators. One originality of the dataset is to provide the sellers’ perspective, allowing to compute innovative indicators of the housing market such as the numb er of new posted offers or how prices fluctuate over time for existing offers. Matching selling prices in our dataset with transacted prices from the notarial database using machine learning techniques allows us to measure the negotiation margin of buyers – an innovation to the literature. During the Covid-19 crisis, these indicators demonstrate the freezing of the market and the “wait-and-see” behaviour of sellers. They also show that prices have been increasing in rural regions after the lockdown but experienced a continued decline in London.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125282093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frédérique Savignac, E. Gautier, Y. Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion
Using a new survey of firms’ inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still positive, bias than households and display less disagreement. Second, we characterize the extent and manner in which the wording of questions matters for the measurement of firms’ inflation expectations. Third, we document whether and how the position of the respondent within the firm affects the provided responses. Fourth, because our survey measures firms’ expectations about aggregate and firm-level wage growth along with their inflation expectations, we are able to show that expectations about wages are even more condensed than firms’ inflation expectations and almost completely uncorrelated with them, indicating that firms perceive little link between price and wage inflation. Finally, an experimental treatment indicates that an exogenous change in firms’ inflation expectations has no effect on their aggregate wage expectations.
{"title":"Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France","authors":"Frédérique Savignac, E. Gautier, Y. Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion","doi":"10.3386/w29376","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29376","url":null,"abstract":"Using a new survey of firms’ inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still positive, bias than households and display less disagreement. Second, we characterize the extent and manner in which the wording of questions matters for the measurement of firms’ inflation expectations. Third, we document whether and how the position of the respondent within the firm affects the provided responses. Fourth, because our survey measures firms’ expectations about aggregate and firm-level wage growth along with their inflation expectations, we are able to show that expectations about wages are even more condensed than firms’ inflation expectations and almost completely uncorrelated with them, indicating that firms perceive little link between price and wage inflation. Finally, an experimental treatment indicates that an exogenous change in firms’ inflation expectations has no effect on their aggregate wage expectations.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"209 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116460546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper aims at assessing the macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) that the ECB has put in place in the euro area after the 2007 financial crisis. With this purpose, we first document how the relative importance of the main transmission channels of such measures has changed over time, with the portfolio rebalancing being generally more impactful than the signaling channel after the “Whatever it takes” speech in July 2012. However, we also provide evidence of a great degree of heterogeneity across core and peripheral economies, as well as over time. We then adopt a time-varying SVAR with stochastic volatility to account for such heterogeneity, by identifying UMP shocks via “dynamic” sign restrictions. By means of counterfactual experiments, we provide evidence of how a different stance on the part of the ECB would have led to a significantly different economic performance of euro area economies. For instance, if the ECB had not put in place the measures adopted between 2014 and 2017, annual output growth would have been, on average, 0.67 percentage points lower in peripheral countries.
{"title":"Does one (Unconventional) Size Fit All? Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies on the Euro Area Economies","authors":"M. Pagliari","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3918378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3918378","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims at assessing the macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) that the ECB has put in place in the euro area after the 2007 financial crisis. With this purpose, we first document how the relative importance of the main transmission channels of such measures has changed over time, with the portfolio rebalancing being generally more impactful than the signaling channel after the “Whatever it takes” speech in July 2012. However, we also provide evidence of a great degree of heterogeneity across core and peripheral economies, as well as over time. We then adopt a time-varying SVAR with stochastic volatility to account for such heterogeneity, by identifying UMP shocks via “dynamic” sign restrictions. By means of counterfactual experiments, we provide evidence of how a different stance on the part of the ECB would have led to a significantly different economic performance of euro area economies. For instance, if the ECB had not put in place the measures adopted between 2014 and 2017, annual output growth would have been, on average, 0.67 percentage points lower in peripheral countries.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126134241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Empirical evidence suggests that bank lending rates are downward rigid: banks tend to adjust their rates more slowly and less completely to short-term market rates decreases than to increases. We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of this downward interest rate rigidity by introducing asymmetric bank lending rate adjustment costs in a macrofinance dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Calibrating the model to the euro area economy, we find that the difference in the initial response of GDP to positive and negative economic shocks of similar amplitude can reach up to 25%. This means that a central bank would have to cut its policy rate much more to obtain a symmetric medium-run impact on GDP. We also show that downward interest rate rigidity is stronger when policy rates are stuck at their effective lower bound, further disrupting monetary policy transmission. These findings imply that neglecting asymmetry in retail interest rate adjustments may yield misguided monetary policy decisions.
{"title":"Downward Interest Rate Rigidity","authors":"Grégory Levieuge, Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3918372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3918372","url":null,"abstract":"Empirical evidence suggests that bank lending rates are downward rigid: banks tend to adjust their rates more slowly and less completely to short-term market rates decreases than to increases. We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of this downward interest rate rigidity by introducing asymmetric bank lending rate adjustment costs in a macrofinance dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Calibrating the model to the euro area economy, we find that the difference in the initial response of GDP to positive and negative economic shocks of similar amplitude can reach up to 25%. This means that a central bank would have to cut its policy rate much more to obtain a symmetric medium-run impact on GDP. We also show that downward interest rate rigidity is stronger when policy rates are stuck at their effective lower bound, further disrupting monetary policy transmission. These findings imply that neglecting asymmetry in retail interest rate adjustments may yield misguided monetary policy decisions.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127269988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Bureau, Anne Duquerroy, Julien Giorgi, Mathias Lé, Suzanne M. Scott, F. Vinas
French Abstract: Nous étudions l’impact de la crise sanitaire sur l’activité de plus de 645 000 entreprises, à partir de données individuelles permettant d’estimer leur chiffre d’affaires à une fréquence mensuelle. Notre approche, fondée sur un modèle de micro-simulation, est innovante à triple titre. Premièrement, nous quantifions la perte d'activité par rapport à une situation contrefactuelle dans laquelle la crise n'aurait pas eu lieu. Deuxièmement, nous estimons ce choc au niveau individuel, permettant une analyse détaillée de l'hétérogénéité des chocs d’activité. Nous mettons en lumière la dispersion du choc à la fois entre secteurs et au sein des secteurs. Nous montrons que le secteur de l'entreprise explique jusqu'à 48% de la variance des chocs d'activité mensuels pondérés par l'emploi en 2020, soit une part beaucoup plus importante que lors d'une année normale. Enfin, nous identifions quatre profils de trajectoires, caractéristiques de l’évolution de l'activité en 2020. Le secteur est le principal déterminant d'appartenance à un profil donné. Conditionnellement au secteur, le profil de trajectoire est également corrélé à la capacité d'adaptation organisationnelle des entreprises.English Abstract: Taking advantage of detailed firm-level data on VAT returns, we estimate the monthly impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the turnover of more than 645,000 French firms. Our approach, based on a micro-simulation model, is innovative in a triple way. Firstly, we quantify the activity loss with respect to a counterfactual situation in which the crisis would not have hit. Secondly, we estimate this shock at the firm level, enabling a thorough analysis of activity loss heterogeneity throughout the crisis. In particular, we shade light on the dispersion of the shock both within and between industries. We show that the industry the firm operates in explains up to 48% of the monthly activity shocks’ variance weighted by employment, a much larger share than in a normal year. Finally, we leverage our monthly firm-level data on sales to show how corporate activity has evolved along four distinct trajectories throughout 2020. The main determinant of belonging to a given profile of activity is the firm industry – defined at a very granular level. Conditional on industry, the activity trajectory is also correlated with the ability to adapt some firms have demonstrated during the crisis in terms of organization and production.
英文摘要:我们研究了健康危机对64.5万多家公司活动的影响，基于每月估计营业额的个人数据。我们的方法基于微模拟模型，在三个方面是创新的。首先，我们量化了与危机本不发生的反事实情况相关的活动损失。其次，我们在个人层面评估这种冲击，以便详细分析活动冲击的异质性。我们强调了冲击在部门之间和部门内部的分散。我们表明，在2020年，企业部门占月度就业加权活动冲击方差的48%，这一比例比正常年份高得多。最后，我们确定了2020年活动演变的四个轨迹轮廓。部门是属于某一特定概况的主要决定因素。在行业条件下，轨迹剖面也与企业的组织适应性相关。英文摘要:利用企业层面增值税申报表的详细数据，我们估计了Covid-19危机对64.5万多家法国企业营业额的每月影响。我们基于微仿真模型的方法在三个方面是创新的。首先，我们根据危机本来不会发生的反事实情况量化活动损失。第二，我们在坚实的层面上估计了这一冲击，使我们能够全面分析整个危机期间活动的异质性损失。的谈话,我们是从远处散of the light on the见到elod both (inside and between产业。我们表明，该公司经营的行业占每月活动冲击方差的48%以上，这一比例比正常年份大得多。最后，我们利用每月公司层面的销售数据来展示2020年期间企业活动是如何沿着四个不同的轨迹发展的。决定某一特定活动是否属于某一特定活动的主要因素是公司行业——在非常细粒度的层面上加以界定。根据工业的条件，活动轨迹也与危机期间一些公司在组织和生产方面所表现出的适应能力有关。
{"title":"Une année de crise COVID : impact sur la dynamique de l’activité des entreprises en France. Une évaluation sur données individuelles (Corporate Activity in France Amid the Covid-19 Crisis. A Granular Data Analysis)","authors":"B. Bureau, Anne Duquerroy, Julien Giorgi, Mathias Lé, Suzanne M. Scott, F. Vinas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3893653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3893653","url":null,"abstract":"French Abstract: Nous étudions l’impact de la crise sanitaire sur l’activité de plus de 645 000 entreprises, à partir de données individuelles permettant d’estimer leur chiffre d’affaires à une fréquence mensuelle. Notre approche, fondée sur un modèle de micro-simulation, est innovante à triple titre. Premièrement, nous quantifions la perte d'activité par rapport à une situation contrefactuelle dans laquelle la crise n'aurait pas eu lieu. Deuxièmement, nous estimons ce choc au niveau individuel, permettant une analyse détaillée de l'hétérogénéité des chocs d’activité. Nous mettons en lumière la dispersion du choc à la fois entre secteurs et au sein des secteurs. Nous montrons que le secteur de l'entreprise explique jusqu'à 48% de la variance des chocs d'activité mensuels pondérés par l'emploi en 2020, soit une part beaucoup plus importante que lors d'une année normale. Enfin, nous identifions quatre profils de trajectoires, caractéristiques de l’évolution de l'activité en 2020. Le secteur est le principal déterminant d'appartenance à un profil donné. Conditionnellement au secteur, le profil de trajectoire est également corrélé à la capacité d'adaptation organisationnelle des entreprises.English Abstract: Taking advantage of detailed firm-level data on VAT returns, we estimate the monthly impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the turnover of more than 645,000 French firms. Our approach, based on a micro-simulation model, is innovative in a triple way. Firstly, we quantify the activity loss with respect to a counterfactual situation in which the crisis would not have hit. Secondly, we estimate this shock at the firm level, enabling a thorough analysis of activity loss heterogeneity throughout the crisis. In particular, we shade light on the dispersion of the shock both within and between industries. We show that the industry the firm operates in explains up to 48% of the monthly activity shocks’ variance weighted by employment, a much larger share than in a normal year. Finally, we leverage our monthly firm-level data on sales to show how corporate activity has evolved along four distinct trajectories throughout 2020. The main determinant of belonging to a given profile of activity is the firm industry – defined at a very granular level. Conditional on industry, the activity trajectory is also correlated with the ability to adapt some firms have demonstrated during the crisis in terms of organization and production.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125197903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Banque de France RPS Submitter, M. Ranvier, Mathilde Gerardin
In the context of the Banque de France’s monthly business survey, this document presents the main findings of the textual analysis of business leaders’ comments. First, the richness of these data is illustrated via an elementary sentiment index and the identification of the main social movements since 2009 by means of keywords. Then, the article presents two statistical applications whose reproducibility is discussed. The first one, applied to the 2018 yellow vests and the 2019 strikes, aims to estimate the impact on GDP of an event whose effect is unequivocal. The second, backed by the study of Brexit, aims to characterize, using a supervised learning model and word vectors, the effects of a complex event with multiple impacts.
{"title":"Enrichment of the Banque de France’s monthly business survey: lessons from textual analysis of business leaders’ comments","authors":"Banque de France RPS Submitter, M. Ranvier, Mathilde Gerardin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3885553","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3885553","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of the Banque de France’s monthly business survey, this document presents<br>the main findings of the textual analysis of business leaders’ comments. First, the richness<br>of these data is illustrated via an elementary sentiment index and the identification of the<br>main social movements since 2009 by means of keywords. Then, the article presents two<br>statistical applications whose reproducibility is discussed. The first one, applied to the 2018<br>yellow vests and the 2019 strikes, aims to estimate the impact on GDP of an event whose<br>effect is unequivocal. The second, backed by the study of Brexit, aims to characterize,<br>using a supervised learning model and word vectors, the effects of a complex event with<br>multiple impacts.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"417 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117320221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Banque de France RPS Submitter, Hervé le Bihan, M. Marx, J. Matheron
A number of central banks in advanced countries use ranges, or bands, around their inflation target to formulate their monetary policy strategy. The adoption of such ranges has been proposed by some policymakers in the context of the Fed and the ECB reviews of their strategies. Using a standard New Keynesian macroeconomic model, we analyze the consequences of tolerance range policies, characterized by a stronger reaction of the central bank to inflation when inflation lies outside the range than when it is close to the target, ie the central value of the band. We show that (i) a tolerance band should not be a zone of inaction: the lack of reaction within the band endangers macroeconomic stability and leads to the possibility of multiple equilibria; (ii) the trade-off between the reaction needed outside the range versus inside seems unfavorable: a very strong reaction, when inflation is far from the target, is required to compensate a moderately lower reaction within tolerance band; (iii) these results, obtained within the framework of a stylized model, are robust to many alterations, in particular allowing for the zero lower bound.
{"title":"Inflation tolerance ranges in the New Keynesian model","authors":"Banque de France RPS Submitter, Hervé le Bihan, M. Marx, J. Matheron","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3885592","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3885592","url":null,"abstract":"A number of central banks in advanced countries use ranges, or bands, around their inflation<br>target to formulate their monetary policy strategy. The adoption of such ranges has been<br>proposed by some policymakers in the context of the Fed and the ECB reviews of their<br>strategies. Using a standard New Keynesian macroeconomic model, we analyze the<br>consequences of tolerance range policies, characterized by a stronger reaction of the central<br>bank to inflation when inflation lies outside the range than when it is close to the target, ie<br>the central value of the band. We show that (i) a tolerance band should not be a zone of<br>inaction: the lack of reaction within the band endangers macroeconomic stability and leads<br>to the possibility of multiple equilibria; (ii) the trade-off between the reaction needed outside<br>the range versus inside seems unfavorable: a very strong reaction, when inflation is far from<br>the target, is required to compensate a moderately lower reaction within tolerance band; (iii)<br>these results, obtained within the framework of a stylized model, are robust to many<br>alterations, in particular allowing for the zero lower bound.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116893822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper shows that the change in the occupational composition of the labor market in favour of non-routine jobs -i.e. job polarization- flattens the price Phillips Curve (PC). Using data from the European Monetary Union and exploiting the fact that job polarization accelerates during recessions, we obtain two results. First, countries experiencing a bigger shift in the occupational structure during a downturn exhibit a flatter PC afterward. Second, the occupational shifts experienced during the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis explain up to a forth of the flattening of the curve in the 2002-2018 period. We reconcile this evidence through a New Keynesian model with unemployment and search and matching frictions. Heterogeneity in the fluidity across segments of the labor market -i.e. differences in the separation and hiring rate across jobs- is the source of PC flattening.
{"title":"Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve","authors":"D. Siena, Riccardo Zago","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3871002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3871002","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that the change in the occupational composition of the labor market in favour of non-routine jobs -i.e. job polarization- flattens the price Phillips Curve (PC). Using data from the European Monetary Union and exploiting the fact that job polarization accelerates during recessions, we obtain two results. First, countries experiencing a bigger shift in the occupational structure during a downturn exhibit a flatter PC afterward. Second, the occupational shifts experienced during the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis explain up to a forth of the flattening of the curve in the 2002-2018 period. We reconcile this evidence through a New Keynesian model with unemployment and search and matching frictions. Heterogeneity in the fluidity across segments of the labor market -i.e. differences in the separation and hiring rate across jobs- is the source of PC flattening.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133952783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Banque de France RPS Submitter, Diallo Askandarou, L. Jacolin, Isabelle Rabaud
This paper investigates the relationship between FDI and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), using a sample of 40 countries over 1980-2017. To disentangle short term from long-term dynamics, our empirical analysis is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Full Effects (DFE) models. We find that FDI has little effect on private investment in the short run but significant crowding-in effects in the long-run: a one percentage point increase of the share of FDI in GDP leads to a 0.29% rise in private investment, in the long run. Our results also show that FDI interacts with public domestic investment to boost these positive effects. Finally, we show that the impact of FDI on domestic private investment is stronger in non-natural resource exporting diversified countries as opposed to non-diversified commodity exporters.
本文以1980-2017年40个非洲国家为样本，研究了撒哈拉以南非洲地区FDI与私人投资之间的关系。为了将短期动态与长期动态区分开来，我们的实证分析基于Pooled Mean Group (PMG)、Mean Group (MG)和Dynamic Full Effects (DFE)模型。我们发现FDI在短期内对私人投资影响不大，但在长期内具有显著的挤入效应:FDI占GDP的比例每增加1个百分点，长期内私人投资就会增长0.29%。我们的研究结果还表明，FDI与国内公共投资相互作用，促进了这些积极效应。最后，我们表明FDI对国内私人投资的影响在非自然资源出口多元化的国家比非多样化的商品出口国更强。
{"title":"Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Private Investment in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Crowding-In or Out ?","authors":"Banque de France RPS Submitter, Diallo Askandarou, L. Jacolin, Isabelle Rabaud","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3866402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3866402","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the relationship between FDI and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), using a sample of 40 countries over 1980-2017. To disentangle short term from long-term dynamics, our empirical analysis is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Full Effects (DFE) models. We find that FDI has little effect on private investment in the short run but significant crowding-in effects in the long-run: a one percentage point increase of the share of FDI in GDP leads to a 0.29% rise in private investment, in the long run. Our results also show that FDI interacts with public domestic investment to boost these positive effects. Finally, we show that the impact of FDI on domestic private investment is stronger in non-natural resource exporting diversified countries as opposed to non-diversified commodity exporters.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"139 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115670390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Banque de France RPS Submitter, Antoine Berthou, JEAN‐STÉPHANE Mésonnier, T. Mayer
In this paper, we show that exporters react more strongly to a cut in tariffs by a distant country when their banks have already been specializing in funding exports to this country. To make our case, we build upon a theoretical model where an informational advantage provided by the exporter's bank results in a lower distribution cost in the destination country. We test the implications of this model for French exporters using the 2011 free trade agreement between the European Union and South-Korea as a quasi-natural experiment. We measure a bank's specialization in Korea using granular information on bank-firm credit lines and firm-level exports in the years preceding the agreement. We assess how customers of different banks react to this trade liberalization episode using detailed information on the bilateral tariff cuts and disaggregated data on French export flows at the firm-product level. We find robust evidence that the specialized lenders help exporters to respond more strongly to changes in tariffs. The effect is strong for all firms along the extensive margin, but only for less productive exporters along the intensive margin.
{"title":"Good Connections: Bank Specialization and the Tariff Elasticity of Exports","authors":"Banque de France RPS Submitter, Antoine Berthou, JEAN‐STÉPHANE Mésonnier, T. Mayer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3854831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3854831","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we show that exporters react more strongly to a cut in tariffs by a distant country<br>when their banks have already been specializing in funding exports to this country. To make our<br>case, we build upon a theoretical model where an informational advantage provided by the<br>exporter's bank results in a lower distribution cost in the destination country. We test the<br>implications of this model for French exporters using the 2011 free trade agreement between the<br>European Union and South-Korea as a quasi-natural experiment. We measure a bank's<br>specialization in Korea using granular information on bank-firm credit lines and firm-level exports<br>in the years preceding the agreement. We assess how customers of different banks react to this trade<br>liberalization episode using detailed information on the bilateral tariff cuts and disaggregated data<br>on French export flows at the firm-product level. We find robust evidence that the specialized<br>lenders help exporters to respond more strongly to changes in tariffs. The effect is strong for all<br>firms along the extensive margin, but only for less productive exporters along the intensive margin.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117271798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：