基于CBAM和CNN的股市趋势预测

Yong Wang, Zhiyu Xu, Yisheng Li
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摘要

近年来,深度学习越来越多地用于分析金融数据。用深度学习来预测股票的买入、卖出和持有点容易出现过拟合、特征提取不合理等问题。本文建立了基于卷积神经网络(CNN)和卷积块注意模块(CBAM)的CBAM-CNN模型来预测买入、卖出和持有点。为了验证所提方法的适用性和优越性,选取上市至2021年8月11日的Dao 30和SHH 50股票,利用混淆矩阵、加权F1分数和Kappa系数对深度学习算法的准确性进行评价。分析结果表明,该算法能够识别出大部分的买卖实例,具有较高的分类预测精度,具有较好的预测效果。此外,与未使用CBAM注意机制的CNN相比,分类性能有明显提高。这种分析的结果可以帮助投资者确定更好的投资策略。
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Stock market trend prediction using CBAM and CNN
In recent years, deep learning has been increasingly used to analyze financial data. For deep learning to predict the buy, sell, and hold points of stocks are prone to over-fitting, unreasonable feature extraction, and other issues. This paper builds a CBAM-CNN model based on Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM) to predict the buy, sell and hold points. In order to verify the applicability and superiority of the proposed method, the shares of Dao 30 and SHH 50 from stock listing to August 11, 2021 are selected, and the accuracy of the deep learning algorithm is evaluated using confusion matrix, weighted F1 score, and Kappa coefficient. The analysis results show that this algorithm has a high classification prediction accuracy because it can identify most of the buy and sell instances and therefore has a better effect. In addition, compared with CNN that do not use the CBAM attention mechanism, classification performance is significantly improved. The results from this analysis can help investors determine their better investment strategies.
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