隐喻和类比在决策中的启发作用

Qingmin Zhang
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摘要

隐喻和类比是决策者使用的两种最流行的启发式方法,可以促进无意识的推理进入头脑中的理性领域。本章分析了这位中国领导人最常使用的隐喻和类比,表明毛的概念体系具有高度的隐喻性。虽然历史类比解释了毛对中国革命外交的启发式推理,但他对隐喻的使用揭示了刻板印象是如何影响他对敌人的理解的,而这种理解反过来又解释和塑造了中国的主要外交政策决定。毛对隐喻和类比的使用/误用也显示了他们的谬论,主要是他们倾向于夸大相似性,从意识到某物很像另一物,到假设某物完全像另一物。
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Metaphors and Analogies as Heuristics in Policymaking
Metaphors and analogies are two of the most popular heuristics utilized by decision makers, promoting an unconscious inference into the realm of rationality within the mind. A master of metaphor and analogy, the late leader of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Mao Zedong, offers an illuminating example of such heuristic reasoning. Analyzing the metaphors and analogies most frequently invoked by the PRC leader, this chapter demonstrates that Mao’s conceptual system was highly metaphorical. While historical analogies explain Mao’s heuristic reasoning for China’s revolutionary diplomacy, his use of metaphors reveals how stereotypes influenced his understanding of his enemies, which in turn explained and shaped China’s major foreign policy decisions. Mao’s use/misuse of metaphors and analogies also showcases their fallacies, mainly their tendency to exaggerate similarities and move from the realization that something is like something else to assuming that something is exactly like something else.
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