Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.10
Eldad Tal-Shir, A. Mintz
This chapter extends poliheuristic theory to the analysis of leaders’ decisions in strategic interactions and offers a framework for the conduct of both ex-ante and ex-post analyses of such decisions. Using the case study of the United States and Russia with regard to the decision to dismantle Syria’s chemical arsenal in September 2013, the authors show that the leaders’ decision followed a two-step poliheuristic process consisting of 1) eliminating alternatives dissatisfactory on non-compensatory dimensions and 2) obtaining equilibrium for the reduced choice sets through a game-theoretic strategic interaction. The chapter also discusses and uses a new method of decision analysis, applied decision analysis.
{"title":"Poliheuristic Theory in Strategic Interactions","authors":"Eldad Tal-Shir, A. Mintz","doi":"10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.10","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter extends poliheuristic theory to the analysis of leaders’ decisions in strategic interactions and offers a framework for the conduct of both ex-ante and ex-post analyses of such decisions. Using the case study of the United States and Russia with regard to the decision to dismantle Syria’s chemical arsenal in September 2013, the authors show that the leaders’ decision followed a two-step poliheuristic process consisting of 1) eliminating alternatives dissatisfactory on non-compensatory dimensions and 2) obtaining equilibrium for the reduced choice sets through a game-theoretic strategic interaction. The chapter also discusses and uses a new method of decision analysis, applied decision analysis.","PeriodicalId":106674,"journal":{"name":"The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science","volume":"615 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123338353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.13
M. Hermann
Because it remains difficult to gain access to political leaders—particularly those at the national level, researchers wishing to study them as individuals have had to become innovative. Such innovations include the development of psychobiography; structured, focused comparative case studies; personality assessment-at-a-distance; and the simulation of policymaking via experiments. With each, researchers have tried to become more systematic and objective in how they study leaders and what leaders are like. In applying these analysis-at-a-distance techniques, researchers have discovered a number of characteristics that appear to shape how political leaders engage in decision-making and the nature of their decisions. These characteristics cover the four elements of personality: cognition, motivation, traits (in this case, leadership style and its components), and reactions to the context (both immediately through emotions and in the long term through political experience). This chapter gives import to the individual level of analysis in understanding policymaking and the policymaking process as well as poses ways of opening up the “black box” to do so, both critical components of behavioral political science.
{"title":"What Leaders Are Like and Their Effect on Decision-Making","authors":"M. Hermann","doi":"10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.13","url":null,"abstract":"Because it remains difficult to gain access to political leaders—particularly those at the national level, researchers wishing to study them as individuals have had to become innovative. Such innovations include the development of psychobiography; structured, focused comparative case studies; personality assessment-at-a-distance; and the simulation of policymaking via experiments. With each, researchers have tried to become more systematic and objective in how they study leaders and what leaders are like. In applying these analysis-at-a-distance techniques, researchers have discovered a number of characteristics that appear to shape how political leaders engage in decision-making and the nature of their decisions. These characteristics cover the four elements of personality: cognition, motivation, traits (in this case, leadership style and its components), and reactions to the context (both immediately through emotions and in the long term through political experience). This chapter gives import to the individual level of analysis in understanding policymaking and the policymaking process as well as poses ways of opening up the “black box” to do so, both critical components of behavioral political science.","PeriodicalId":106674,"journal":{"name":"The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science","volume":"224 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122486263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-11DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.35
D. Osborne, Nicole Satherley, C. Sibley
Research since the 1990s reveals that openness to experience—a personality trait that captures interest in novelty, creativity, unconventionalism, and open-mindedness—correlates negatively with political conservatism. This chapter summarizes this vast literature by meta-analyzing 232 unique samples (N = 575,691) that examine the relationship between the Big Five personality traits and conservatism. The results reveal that the negative relationship between openness to experience and conservatism (r = −.145) is nearly twice as big as the next strongest correlation between personality and ideology (namely, conscientiousness and conservatism; r = .076). The associations between personality traits and conservatism were, however, substantively larger in Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic (WEIRD) countries than in non-WEIRD countries. The chapter concludes by reviewing recent longitudinal work demonstrating that openness to experience and conservatism are non-causally related. Collectively, the chapter shows that openness to experience is by far the strongest (negative) correlate of conservatism but that there is little evidence that this association is causal.
{"title":"Personality and Ideology","authors":"D. Osborne, Nicole Satherley, C. Sibley","doi":"10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.35","url":null,"abstract":"Research since the 1990s reveals that openness to experience—a personality trait that captures interest in novelty, creativity, unconventionalism, and open-mindedness—correlates negatively with political conservatism. This chapter summarizes this vast literature by meta-analyzing 232 unique samples (N = 575,691) that examine the relationship between the Big Five personality traits and conservatism. The results reveal that the negative relationship between openness to experience and conservatism (r = −.145) is nearly twice as big as the next strongest correlation between personality and ideology (namely, conscientiousness and conservatism; r = .076). The associations between personality traits and conservatism were, however, substantively larger in Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic (WEIRD) countries than in non-WEIRD countries. The chapter concludes by reviewing recent longitudinal work demonstrating that openness to experience and conservatism are non-causally related. Collectively, the chapter shows that openness to experience is by far the strongest (negative) correlate of conservatism but that there is little evidence that this association is causal.","PeriodicalId":106674,"journal":{"name":"The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131918199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-13DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.16
Michael C. Horowitz
Forecasting political events is a critical activity for social scientists. Forecasting can help test competing theories, let researchers grapple with the true substantive effects of their models, and bridge the gap between academia and the policy world. Forecasting is an academic activity with direct relevance for policymakers. Yet, a variety of cognitive biases can make forecasting challenging, even for experts. Despite these limitations, interest in forecasting is growing. This chapter describes several different approaches to forecasting political events, especially international political events. These methods include game theory, machine learning, statistical analysis, and event data algorithms. Recent research also suggests the way models drawing on the wisdom of the crowds, forecasting teams, and prediction markets can generate large improvements in accuracy when forecasting geopolitical events. All have strengths and weaknesses, given the inherent uncertainty that exists in the political world.
{"title":"Forecasting Political Events","authors":"Michael C. Horowitz","doi":"10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.16","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting political events is a critical activity for social scientists. Forecasting can help test competing theories, let researchers grapple with the true substantive effects of their models, and bridge the gap between academia and the policy world. Forecasting is an academic activity with direct relevance for policymakers. Yet, a variety of cognitive biases can make forecasting challenging, even for experts. Despite these limitations, interest in forecasting is growing. This chapter describes several different approaches to forecasting political events, especially international political events. These methods include game theory, machine learning, statistical analysis, and event data algorithms. Recent research also suggests the way models drawing on the wisdom of the crowds, forecasting teams, and prediction markets can generate large improvements in accuracy when forecasting geopolitical events. All have strengths and weaknesses, given the inherent uncertainty that exists in the political world.","PeriodicalId":106674,"journal":{"name":"The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115144250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-15DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.33
Quan Li
Since the invention of Word2Vec by a Google team in 2013, natural language processing (NLP) techniques have been increasingly applied in the private sector, by government agencies across countries, and in the social sciences. This chapter explains NLP’s basic analytical procedure from preprocessing of raw text data to statistical modeling, reviews the most recent advances in NLP applications in political science, and proposes a new scaling approach for measuring political actors’ spatial preferences along with potential application in decision-making research. It argues that with a greater focus on explaining behavioral mechanisms and processes, which is a goal shared by artificial intelligence/computational modeling and cognitive science, NLP can help improve behavioral political science by its ability to integrate micro-, meso-, and macro-level analyses. Critical and reflexive use of NLP techniques, combined with big data, will lead to obtain better insights on political behavior in general.
{"title":"Natural Language Processing for Innovating Behavioral Political Science Research","authors":"Quan Li","doi":"10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.33","url":null,"abstract":"Since the invention of Word2Vec by a Google team in 2013, natural language processing (NLP) techniques have been increasingly applied in the private sector, by government agencies across countries, and in the social sciences. This chapter explains NLP’s basic analytical procedure from preprocessing of raw text data to statistical modeling, reviews the most recent advances in NLP applications in political science, and proposes a new scaling approach for measuring political actors’ spatial preferences along with potential application in decision-making research. It argues that with a greater focus on explaining behavioral mechanisms and processes, which is a goal shared by artificial intelligence/computational modeling and cognitive science, NLP can help improve behavioral political science by its ability to integrate micro-, meso-, and macro-level analyses. Critical and reflexive use of NLP techniques, combined with big data, will lead to obtain better insights on political behavior in general.","PeriodicalId":106674,"journal":{"name":"The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114330646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-10-09DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.24
H. Norpoth
This chapter covers the major types of election forecasting, as they have been applied in the United States and other democracies. For the most part, electoral forecasts have relied on three approaches. In the order in which they have emerged, these are prediction markets, pre-election polls, and structural models. In the last few years, Google searches, Facebook, and Twitter have also been exploited by election forecasters. The handbook chapter describes the various methods and evaluates their successes and failures. Of particular interest is the widespread failure of nearly all approaches to predict the election of Donald Trump. The postmortem is still ongoing. It remains to be seen what can be done to make election forecasting more accurate and thus more trustworthy.
{"title":"Predicting Elections","authors":"H. Norpoth","doi":"10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.24","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter covers the major types of election forecasting, as they have been applied in the United States and other democracies. For the most part, electoral forecasts have relied on three approaches. In the order in which they have emerged, these are prediction markets, pre-election polls, and structural models. In the last few years, Google searches, Facebook, and Twitter have also been exploited by election forecasters. The handbook chapter describes the various methods and evaluates their successes and failures. Of particular interest is the widespread failure of nearly all approaches to predict the election of Donald Trump. The postmortem is still ongoing. It remains to be seen what can be done to make election forecasting more accurate and thus more trustworthy.","PeriodicalId":106674,"journal":{"name":"The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134315629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-10DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.12
L. Littvay
As recently as 2005, John Alford and colleagues surprised political science with their twin study that found empirical evidence of the genetic transmission of political attitudes and behaviors. Reactions in the field were mixed, but one thing is for sure: it is not time to mourn the social part of the social sciences. Genetics is not the deterministic mechanism that social scientists often assume it to be. No specific part of DNA is responsible for anything but minute, indirect effects on political orientations. Genes express themselves differently in different contexts, suggesting that the political phenomenon behavioral political scientists take for granted may be quite volatile; hence, the impact of genetics is also much less stable in its foundations than initially assumed. Twin studies can offer a unique and powerful avenue to study these behavioral processes as they are more powerful than cross-sectional (or even longitudinal) studies not only for understanding heritability but also for asserting the direction of causation, the social (and, of course, genetic) pathways that explain how political phenomena are related to each other. This chapter aims to take the reader through this journey that political science has gone through over the past decade and a half and point to the synergies behavioral political science and behavioral genetics offer to the advancement of the discipline.
{"title":"Twin Studies and Politics","authors":"L. Littvay","doi":"10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.12","url":null,"abstract":"As recently as 2005, John Alford and colleagues surprised political science with their twin study that found empirical evidence of the genetic transmission of political attitudes and behaviors. Reactions in the field were mixed, but one thing is for sure: it is not time to mourn the social part of the social sciences. Genetics is not the deterministic mechanism that social scientists often assume it to be. No specific part of DNA is responsible for anything but minute, indirect effects on political orientations. Genes express themselves differently in different contexts, suggesting that the political phenomenon behavioral political scientists take for granted may be quite volatile; hence, the impact of genetics is also much less stable in its foundations than initially assumed. Twin studies can offer a unique and powerful avenue to study these behavioral processes as they are more powerful than cross-sectional (or even longitudinal) studies not only for understanding heritability but also for asserting the direction of causation, the social (and, of course, genetic) pathways that explain how political phenomena are related to each other. This chapter aims to take the reader through this journey that political science has gone through over the past decade and a half and point to the synergies behavioral political science and behavioral genetics offer to the advancement of the discipline.","PeriodicalId":106674,"journal":{"name":"The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133399987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-10DOI: 10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190634131.013.29
Marijke Breuning
Role theory scholarship in politics and international relations (IR) seeks to understand decision-making from the perspective of the decision maker. That said, role theory scholarship has evolved over time. It has moved from an initial emphasis on the structural and institutional constraints that affect human behavior to a greater emphasis on the agency of human beings. In the past decade, role theory has re-emerged as an approach to the study of politics and IR. This new generation of scholarship places its emphasis on decision makers (or agents) while acknowledging that they are embedded in institutions (or structures). As such, role theory accepts the foundational characteristics of behavioral IR—which demands attention for the cognitive limitations of human decision makers, as well as their limited capacity to process information, and the various biases and heuristics that affect their reasoning. Role theory posits that theoretical models must simultaneously take into account the state’s material capabilities and the perceptions of decision makers, who bring their own biases and ideas (or maybe ideals) to the task of shaping foreign policy. Role theory enables scholars to model ideational factors alongside material ones and, in doing so, to improve understanding of the foreign policy decision-making of a wide range of states, including small(er) states, new states, and emerging powers.
{"title":"Role Theory in Politics and International Relations","authors":"Marijke Breuning","doi":"10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190634131.013.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190634131.013.29","url":null,"abstract":"Role theory scholarship in politics and international relations (IR) seeks to understand decision-making from the perspective of the decision maker. That said, role theory scholarship has evolved over time. It has moved from an initial emphasis on the structural and institutional constraints that affect human behavior to a greater emphasis on the agency of human beings. In the past decade, role theory has re-emerged as an approach to the study of politics and IR. This new generation of scholarship places its emphasis on decision makers (or agents) while acknowledging that they are embedded in institutions (or structures). As such, role theory accepts the foundational characteristics of behavioral IR—which demands attention for the cognitive limitations of human decision makers, as well as their limited capacity to process information, and the various biases and heuristics that affect their reasoning. Role theory posits that theoretical models must simultaneously take into account the state’s material capabilities and the perceptions of decision makers, who bring their own biases and ideas (or maybe ideals) to the task of shaping foreign policy. Role theory enables scholars to model ideational factors alongside material ones and, in doing so, to improve understanding of the foreign policy decision-making of a wide range of states, including small(er) states, new states, and emerging powers.","PeriodicalId":106674,"journal":{"name":"The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127218355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-10DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.34
Qingmin Zhang
Metaphors and analogies are two of the most popular heuristics utilized by decision makers, promoting an unconscious inference into the realm of rationality within the mind. A master of metaphor and analogy, the late leader of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Mao Zedong, offers an illuminating example of such heuristic reasoning. Analyzing the metaphors and analogies most frequently invoked by the PRC leader, this chapter demonstrates that Mao’s conceptual system was highly metaphorical. While historical analogies explain Mao’s heuristic reasoning for China’s revolutionary diplomacy, his use of metaphors reveals how stereotypes influenced his understanding of his enemies, which in turn explained and shaped China’s major foreign policy decisions. Mao’s use/misuse of metaphors and analogies also showcases their fallacies, mainly their tendency to exaggerate similarities and move from the realization that something is like something else to assuming that something is exactly like something else.
{"title":"Metaphors and Analogies as Heuristics in Policymaking","authors":"Qingmin Zhang","doi":"10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.34","url":null,"abstract":"Metaphors and analogies are two of the most popular heuristics utilized by decision makers, promoting an unconscious inference into the realm of rationality within the mind. A master of metaphor and analogy, the late leader of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Mao Zedong, offers an illuminating example of such heuristic reasoning. Analyzing the metaphors and analogies most frequently invoked by the PRC leader, this chapter demonstrates that Mao’s conceptual system was highly metaphorical. While historical analogies explain Mao’s heuristic reasoning for China’s revolutionary diplomacy, his use of metaphors reveals how stereotypes influenced his understanding of his enemies, which in turn explained and shaped China’s major foreign policy decisions. Mao’s use/misuse of metaphors and analogies also showcases their fallacies, mainly their tendency to exaggerate similarities and move from the realization that something is like something else to assuming that something is exactly like something else.","PeriodicalId":106674,"journal":{"name":"The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127371295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-10DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.31
J. Stein, Lior Sheffer
Prospect theory has been adopted unevenly across different domains of political decision-making. Research drawing on prospect theory has contributed to important advances in the understanding of processes of elite decision-making in foreign policy and domestic politics. Political scientists have also contributed several important extensions of and qualifications to prospect theory that augment the original theoretical framework and are applicable in other disciplines. The next wave of research needs to be far more careful in specifying the scope conditions that have been the focus of research in behavioral economics. Scholars will also have to pay closer attention to the distribution of probability estimates across options; whether political decision makers are choosing among risky/certain bimodal distributions, high-probability distributions, high/low distributions, or low-probability distributions matters to the predicted impact of framing effects. Finally, studies will need to pay greater attention to the information political decision makers are given and to the impact of group dynamics in political settings. Identifying the scope conditions of prospect theory in the context of political and policymaking processes over time can make a significant contribution to the explanation of both domestic and foreign policy decisions, fill a gap between individual-level choice and institutionally based outcomes, and provide a stronger behavioral foundation for understanding the dynamics of multiactor policy choice.
{"title":"Prospect Theory and Political Decision-Making","authors":"J. Stein, Lior Sheffer","doi":"10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.013.31","url":null,"abstract":"Prospect theory has been adopted unevenly across different domains of political decision-making. Research drawing on prospect theory has contributed to important advances in the understanding of processes of elite decision-making in foreign policy and domestic politics. Political scientists have also contributed several important extensions of and qualifications to prospect theory that augment the original theoretical framework and are applicable in other disciplines. The next wave of research needs to be far more careful in specifying the scope conditions that have been the focus of research in behavioral economics. Scholars will also have to pay closer attention to the distribution of probability estimates across options; whether political decision makers are choosing among risky/certain bimodal distributions, high-probability distributions, high/low distributions, or low-probability distributions matters to the predicted impact of framing effects. Finally, studies will need to pay greater attention to the information political decision makers are given and to the impact of group dynamics in political settings. Identifying the scope conditions of prospect theory in the context of political and policymaking processes over time can make a significant contribution to the explanation of both domestic and foreign policy decisions, fill a gap between individual-level choice and institutionally based outcomes, and provide a stronger behavioral foundation for understanding the dynamics of multiactor policy choice.","PeriodicalId":106674,"journal":{"name":"The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124220869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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