中国经济增长对印尼经济的影响

Aulia Keiko Hubbansyah, Wurdaningsih Wurdaningsih
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摘要

本研究旨在分析中国经济增长对印尼经济的影响。在本分析中,研究采用了具有块外生性的SVAR,由块全球变量(中国经济增长和非燃料全球商品价格增长)和块国内变量块(经济增长、通货膨胀、实际利率和印度尼西亚汇率)组成。利用1993年第一季度至2017年第二季度的数据,本研究发现,中国经济增长的冲击对全球非燃料大宗商品价格走势产生了重大影响。此外,人们还承认,中国1.9%的经济增长冲击导致印尼经济增长0.85%。这是由于印尼盾对美元汇率升值1.6%,使通货膨胀得到控制,而通货膨胀在物价指数上涨方面是微不足道的
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Dampak Pertumbuhan Ekonomi China Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia
This study aims to analyze the impact of China’s economic growth on the Indonesian economy. In this analysis, the study adapted SVAR with block exogeneity consisting of blocks global variable (China’s economic growth and non-fuel global commodity prices growth) and domestic variable blocks (economic growth, inflation, real interest rates and Indonesia’s exchange rates). Using the data over the period from 1993q1-2017q2, this study found that the shock if China’s economic growth had a major impact on non-fuel global commodity price movements. Additionally, it is also acknowledged that China’s economic growth shock of 1.9 percent causes the Indonesian economy to grow by 0.85 percent. This was due to the appreciation of Rupiah exchange rate againt US Dollar by 1.6 percent, make inflation under control, while inflation in term of rising price index was insignficant
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