土耳其在解决乌克兰危机中的立场和作用

I. Vedeneev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

该研究报告专门审议了土耳其在乌克兰事件中的立场和作用。结论是,土耳其领导人认为在俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的谈判进程中进行积极的调解是土耳其国家利益的实现。从土耳其领导层的角度来看,土耳其需要在关系上保持平衡,一方面是与俄罗斯的关系,另一方面是与乌克兰和西方的关系。土耳其的立场可以被描述为“仁慈的中立”。尽管埃尔多安总统希望土耳其与俄罗斯和西方保持“等距”(至少在乌克兰的情况下),但目前的局势似乎是不可持续的。西方(主要以美国为代表)将继续推动土耳其对俄罗斯采取鲁莽的措施。其原因可能是纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫或叙利亚北部的紧张局势升级。另一个因素可能是土耳其2023年的选举,结果是亲西方政府(联合政府)可能在该国掌权。
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TURKEY’S POSITION AND ROLE IN THE SETTLEMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS
The study is devoted to the consideraton of the positon and role of Turkey in relaton to the events in Ukraine. It is concluded that the Turkish leadership sees the realizaton of Tur‑ key's natonal interests in carrying out actve mediaton in the negotaton process between Rus‑ sia and Ukraine. From the point of view of the Turkish leadership, Turkey needs to maintain a balance in relatons, on the one hand, with Russia, and, on the other hand, with Ukraine and the West. Turkey's posi‑ ton can be characterized as «benevolent neutrality». Despite President Erdogan's desire to keep Turkey «equidistant» from both Russia and the West (at least in the case of the situaton in Ukraine), the current situaton seems unsustainable. The West (primarily represented by the United States) will contnue to push Turkey to take rash steps against Russia. The reason for this may be the escalaton of tension in Nagorno‑Karabakh or North‑ ern Syria. Another factor may be the 2023 electons in Turkey, as a result of which a pro‑Western government (coaliton) may come to power in the country.
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