丹麦刮风时会发生什么?风电对北欧电力市场价格变动的实证分析

Johannes Mauritzen
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文试图检验风电生产对现货市场批发电价变异性的影响。我使用了一个简单的分布式滞后计量经济模型和丹麦5年来的每小时和每天的数据,丹麦是少数几个拥有悠久风电渗透历史的地方之一。我表明,风力发电具有减少日内波动的效果,但这一结果仅部分地延续到每周时间窗口的价格波动。我认为,价格变化的减少反过来是由于高峰负荷时期更陡峭的供应计划。
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What Happens When it's Windy in Denmark? An Empirical Analysis of Wind Power on Price Variability in the Nordic Electricity Market
This paper attempts to test the effect that wind power production has on the variability of wholesale electricity prices in the spot market. I use a simple distributed lag econometric model and five years worth of hourly and daily data from Denmark, which is one of the few places with a long history of significant wind power penetration. I show that wind power has the effect of reducing intra-day variability but that this result only partially carries over to price variation over weekly time windows. I suggest that the reduction in price variability in turn is due to a steeper supply schedule at peak-load times.
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