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Disregarding the Shoulders of Giants: Inferences from Innovation Research 忽视巨人的肩膀:来自创新研究的推论
Pub Date : 2021-10-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3175055
D. Reeb, Wanli Zhao
Studies proposing new determinants of corporate innovation include previously identified factors in an ad hoc manner. We find that only a sparse set of recently proposed innovation determinants provide material, independent information about patents and citations. We document that inferences in recent empirical studies often change when we include previously discovered innovation determinants. Commonly used econometric methods, including fixed effects and plausible shocks, do not always mitigate the need to condition on previously identified innovation determinants. Rather than randomly selecting a subset of control variables from prior studies, our analysis offers researchers a framework to consider previously proposed variables.
提出企业创新的新决定因素的研究,以特别的方式包括先前确定的因素。我们发现只有一组稀疏的最近提出的创新决定因素提供了有关专利和引用的材料,独立信息。我们证明,在最近的实证研究中,当我们包括以前发现的创新决定因素时,推论往往会发生变化。常用的计量经济学方法,包括固定效应和似是而非的冲击,并不总能减轻对先前确定的创新决定因素的需求。我们的分析不是从先前的研究中随机选择控制变量的子集,而是为研究人员提供了一个考虑先前提出的变量的框架。
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引用次数: 2
Exploration and Exploitation in US Technological Change 美国技术变革中的探索与开发
Pub Date : 2021-08-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3900479
Vasco M. Carvalho, M. Draca, Nikolas Kuhlen
How do firms and inventors move through knowledge space as they develop their innovations? We propose a method for tracking patterns of exploration and exploitation in patenting behaviour in the US for the period since 1920. Our exploration measure is constructed from the text of patents and involves the use of Bayesian Surprise to measure how different current patent-based innovations are from existing portfolios. Our results indicate that there are distinct life-cycle patterns to firm and inventor exploration. Furthermore, exploration activity is more geographically concentrated than general patenting, but this concentration is centred outside the main hubs of patenting.
企业和发明家在发展创新时如何在知识空间中移动?我们提出了一种方法来跟踪自1920年以来美国专利行为的探索和利用模式。我们的探索方法是根据专利文本构建的,并涉及使用贝叶斯惊讶度来衡量当前基于专利的创新与现有组合的差异。我们的研究结果表明,企业和发明者的探索存在不同的生命周期模式。此外,勘探活动在地理上比一般的专利申请更为集中,但这种集中集中在主要的专利申请中心之外。
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引用次数: 1
The Arms Race of Models: Complexify or Die 模型的军备竞赛:复杂化或死亡
Pub Date : 2021-06-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3867464
J. Whitmore
As a graduate student at the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC), I learned that simple models can beat more complex models, particularly in out-of-sample accuracy. This finding has been validated in my career since then. But I did observe some situations where complex models were useful. And even more surprisingly, I noticed some situations where complex models were truly necessary. The model was driven to complexity by an arms race. I will illustrate such an arms race with a series of diagrams showing how a classifier can be driven to complexity, focusing on the case of spam.

Talk at “Decision Making Under Radical Uncertainty”, June 11-12, 2021. Berlin, Germany (digital)
Talk recording: https://vimeo.com/568707053
作为适应性行为与认知中心(ABC)的一名研究生,我了解到简单的模型可以击败更复杂的模型,特别是在样本外精度方面。从那时起,这个发现在我的职业生涯中得到了证实。但我确实观察到了一些复杂模型有用的情况。更令人惊讶的是,我注意到在一些情况下,复杂的模型是非常必要的。该模型因军备竞赛而变得复杂。我将用一系列图表来说明这种军备竞赛,这些图表展示了分类器是如何变得复杂的,重点是垃圾邮件的情况。在“极端不确定性下的决策制定”上的演讲,2021年6月11日至12日。柏林,德国(数字)谈话录音:https://vimeo.com/568707053
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引用次数: 0
Destabilization and Consolidation: Conceptualizing, Measuring, and Validating the Dual Characteristics of Technology 不稳定与巩固:概念化、测量和验证技术的双重特征
Pub Date : 2020-08-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3682843
Jiyao Chen, Diana Shao, Shaokun Fan
Abstract The conventional wisdom classifies technologies into dichotomous types, such as competence-enhancing versus competence-destroying or sustaining versus disruptive. This categorization corresponds to the two routes of technology evolution: either consolidating or destabilizing past achievements. However, the combinational view suggests that a technology is a recombination of existing components, and hence it may consolidate some of its prior arts while destabilizing others. Therefore, we propose a dual technology can be simultaneously destabilizing and consolidating. To identify dual technologies, we develop the destabilization index (D) and the consolidation index (C) using patent citation networks. To validate the proposed indexes, we first select representative US patent examples to illustrate the face validity by showing how D and C indexes capture the dual characteristics. Secondly, we assess convergent and discriminant validity by examining the correlations between D and C indexes and other innovation measures. Finally, we evaluate nomological validity by studying the antecedents and the predictive power of the dual characteristics using 2.6 million patents from USPTO's dataset from 1976 to 2006. Regression results show that theory-driven factors such as patent novelty and government interest are associated with D and C indexes as expected. We also find that high D and C indexes are positively associated with patent value as perceived by its owner, and entity size moderates the effects of D and C indexes on patent value differently.
传统智慧将技术分为两类,如能力增强型与能力破坏型,或维持型与破坏性。这种分类对应于技术进化的两条路线:要么巩固过去的成就,要么破坏过去的成就。然而,组合观点表明,一项技术是现有组件的重新组合,因此它可能巩固其先前的一些技术,同时破坏其他技术。因此,我们提出一种双重技术可以同时破坏稳定和巩固。为了识别双重技术,我们利用专利引文网络建立了不稳定指数(D)和整合指数(C)。为了验证所提出的指标,我们首先选择具有代表性的美国专利示例,通过展示D和C指标如何捕捉双重特征来说明面部有效性。其次,我们通过检验D和C指标与其他创新指标之间的相关性来评估收敛效度和区分效度。最后,我们利用美国专利商标局1976 - 2006年的260万件专利数据集,通过研究双特征的前因式和预测能力来评估法效度。回归结果表明,理论驱动因素如专利新颖性和政府利益与D和C指标的相关性符合预期。研究还发现,高D和C指标与专利所有者感知的专利价值呈正相关,实体规模对D和C指标对专利价值的调节作用存在差异。
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引用次数: 18
Patent Classification Systems and Technological Categorization: An Overview and Data Update 专利分类系统和技术分类:概述和数据更新
Pub Date : 2020-03-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3220033
Lucy Xiaolu Wang
Patent classification systems and upper-level grouping datasets have been widely used for research and entrepreneurial purposes but are insufficiently documented. This article provides an overview of the major patent classification systems and the basic ideas behind categorization of the data on patent classes. I highlight recent institutional changes that disproportionately affect patents in specific categories and alternative categorizations used in the patent examination process. Finally, I update the National Bureau of Economic Research patent technological categorization based on the latest U.S. patent classification. The resulting datasets can be used in numerous follow-up analyses using patent data to investigate innovation and entrepreneurship.
专利分类系统和上层分组数据集已广泛用于研究和创业目的,但文献记录不足。本文概述了主要的专利分类系统和专利类数据分类背后的基本思想。我强调了最近的制度变化,这些变化不成比例地影响了专利审查过程中使用的特定类别和替代类别的专利。最后,我根据最新的美国专利分类更新了国家经济研究局的专利技术分类。由此产生的数据集可用于使用专利数据进行大量后续分析,以调查创新和创业精神。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Complexity and Human Development: Comparing Traditional and Slack Based Data Envelopment Analysis Models 经济复杂性与人类发展:比较传统和基于Slack的数据包络分析模型
Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3402211
Diogo Ferraz, H. F. Moralles, N. D. Costa, D. Rebelatto
Several studies argue that economic growth cannot well explain human development. The economic complexity approach is an alternative understanding of how economic sophistication can affect well-being. Moreover, there is increasing literature using traditional Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models to measure the transformation of wealth into human development. However, we did not find studies comparing more advanced models, such as Slack Based Models (SBM), and which considers the economic sophistication as an input to generate human development. To fill this gap, the aim of this article is to compare traditional and SBM-DEA models, measuring the countries' efficiency in converting economic complexity into human development. We analyzed 50 countries through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in 2013, comparing Constant and Variable returns of scale traditional and Slack Based models. We also proposed the Composite Index of Human Development and Economic Complexity (CIHD-EC). Our findings show that the traditional variable return of scale model tends to overestimate efficient countries. It occurs especially in developed and rich economies. In contrast, the slack-based model provides a better understanding of the problem under analysis. Finally, our CIHD-EC shows that only Singapore is efficient to transform economic complexity into human development around the world.
一些研究认为,经济增长不能很好地解释人类的发展。经济复杂性方法是对经济复杂性如何影响福祉的另一种理解。此外,越来越多的文献使用传统的数据包络分析(DEA)模型来衡量财富向人类发展的转化。然而,我们没有发现比较更先进的模型的研究,例如基于Slack的模型(SBM),该模型将经济复杂性视为产生人类发展的输入。为了填补这一空白,本文的目的是比较传统模型和SBM-DEA模型,衡量各国将经济复杂性转化为人类发展的效率。2013年,我们通过数据包络分析(DEA)对50个国家进行了分析,比较了规模传统模型和基于Slack模型的不变收益和可变收益。提出了人类发展与经济复杂性综合指数(CIHD-EC)。研究结果表明,传统的规模变量收益模型往往高估了效率国家。这种情况在发达国家和富裕国家尤为常见。相比之下,基于松弛的模型可以更好地理解所分析的问题。最后,我们的CIHD-EC表明,只有新加坡能够有效地将经济复杂性转化为人类发展。
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引用次数: 2
Reducing the Administrative Demands of the Science Curiosity Scale (SCS): A Validation Study 降低科学好奇心量表(SCS)的管理需求:一项验证研究
Pub Date : 2019-04-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3379265
Matthew P. Motta, D. Chapman, Kathryn Haglin, D. Kahan
Science curious people -- those who enjoy consuming science-related information -- are less likely to hold polarized views about contentious science. Consequently, science curiosity is of great interest to scholars across the social sciences. However, measuring science curiosity via the science curiosity scale (SCS; Kahan et al., 2017) is highly time intensive; potentially impeding its widespread usage. In this paper, we present two new methods for reducing SCS administration time. One method presents respondents with a randomly selected subset of items (the "Random Subset Method; RS"). The other asks all respondents a core set of just four items (the "Reduced-Form Method; RF"). In three nationally representative surveys of U.S. adults, we assess the construct, convergent, and predictive validity of these alternatives. Across studies, the RS and RF versions of the SCS appear to be well validated. We conclude by discussing how researchers can apply these insights into their own research.
对科学好奇的人——那些喜欢消费科学相关信息的人——不太可能对有争议的科学持有两极分化的观点。因此,科学好奇心引起了社会科学学者的极大兴趣。然而,通过科学好奇心量表(SCS;Kahan等人,2017)是高度时间密集型的;可能阻碍其广泛使用。在本文中,我们提出了两种减少SCS给药时间的新方法。一种方法是向受访者提供随机选择的项目子集(“随机子集法”;RS”)。另一种方法只要求所有受访者回答四个核心问题(“简化形式法”;射频”)。在三个具有全国代表性的美国成年人调查中,我们评估了这些替代方案的结构、聚合和预测有效性。在所有研究中,RS和RF版本的SCS似乎得到了很好的验证。最后,我们讨论了研究人员如何将这些见解应用到他们自己的研究中。
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引用次数: 1
Review on Methodologies of Object Detection 目标检测方法综述
Pub Date : 2019-03-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3361545
Sumesh Shetty, Aditi Sharma, Apurva Patil, Atul Patil
This project is an application of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) in the field of object detection and classification. CNN's are best applicable in image and video recognition. The system proposed in this project involves training the network over images and processing the input video frames for testing. The model will be trained over images of potholes, road signs and pedestrians. The dataset of images for potholes is created, as there is no specific dataset available. The dataset of images for road signs and pedestrians is created by collecting images from various sources and formatting them. The model will be trained over these datasets and tested on a real time video. This is a prototype which can be implemented in automated cars and can be used by car drivers as an Android application, which detects the objects and alerts the user through a voice message.
本项目是卷积神经网络(CNN)和递归神经网络(RNN)在目标检测和分类领域的应用。CNN最适用于图像和视频识别。在这个项目中提出的系统包括在图像上训练网络并处理输入的视频帧以进行测试。该模型将通过坑洼、道路标志和行人的图像进行训练。由于没有特定的数据集可用,因此创建了凹坑图像数据集。道路标志和行人图像数据集是通过收集各种来源的图像并对其进行格式化而创建的。该模型将在这些数据集上进行训练,并在实时视频上进行测试。这是一个可以在自动驾驶汽车中实现的原型,可以被汽车司机用作Android应用程序,它可以检测物体并通过语音信息提醒用户。
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引用次数: 0
Where’d You Get that Idea? Determinants of Creativity and Impact in Popular Music 你怎么会有这种想法?流行音乐中创造力和影响的决定因素
Pub Date : 2019-02-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3500916
Bernardo Mueller
What are the determinants of creativity, innovation and impact? In this paper I explore this question through an analysis of data from the Song Explorer podcast, where composers describe how they created a specific song. I mine their accounts to classify their processes into seven different, but not mutually exclusive, theories of the creative process. The result of this exercise suggests that the recombination of existing songs is a major process for the creation of new successful songs. The second step considers what kind of recombinations are associated with high impact. For each song in the sample I have one or more other songs which were explicitly indicated as an influence or inspiration. I use the music genre classification system Every Noise at Once, that provides a map of over 1,800 genres and millions of songs to create a set of descriptive statistics of the similarity of each song to their inspiration-songs. These statistics are then used as explanatory variables in a regression that seeks to explain impact (YouTube views per day since the songs' video release), while controlling for other determinants of song impact, such as the artists’ established level of popularity. The results confirm the optimal differentiation hypothesis that the simultaneous presence of conventionality together with novelty, and not just one or the other, is a major determinant of creativity and impact.
创造力、创新和影响力的决定因素是什么?在本文中,我通过分析来自Song Explorer播客的数据来探讨这个问题,其中作曲家描述了他们如何创作特定的歌曲。我对他们的描述进行了挖掘,将他们的创作过程分为七种不同的、但并非相互排斥的创作过程理论。这个练习的结果表明,现有歌曲的重组是创造新成功歌曲的主要过程。第二步考虑什么样的重组与高影响相关。对于样本中的每首歌,我都有一首或多首其他歌曲明确表示为影响或灵感。我使用音乐类型分类系统Every Noise at Once,它提供了超过1800种类型和数百万首歌曲的地图,以创建一组描述性统计数据,显示每首歌曲与其灵感歌曲的相似性。然后,这些统计数据被用作回归中的解释变量,试图解释影响(自歌曲视频发布以来,YouTube每天的浏览量),同时控制歌曲影响的其他决定因素,例如艺术家的既定受欢迎程度。结果证实了最优分化假设,即传统与新颖性的同时存在,而不仅仅是一个或另一个,是创造力和影响力的主要决定因素。
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引用次数: 8
Concordance and Complementarity in Intellectual Property Instruments 知识产权文书的一致性与互补性
Pub Date : 2019-01-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3316020
Marco Grazzi, C. Piccardo, C. Vergari
This work investigates the relationship between proxies of innovation activities, such as patents and trademarks, and firm performance in terms of revenues and growth. By resorting to the virtual universe of Italian manufacturing firms we provide a rather complete picture of the innovation activities of Italian firms, in terms of patents and trademarks, and we study whether the two instruments for protecting Intellectual Property (IP) exhibit complementarity or substitutability. In addition, and to our knowledge novel, we propose a measure of concordance (or proximity) between the patents and trademarks owned by the same firm and we then investigate whether such concordance appears to exert any effect on performance.
这项工作研究了创新活动的代理(如专利和商标)与公司收入和增长方面的绩效之间的关系。通过借助于意大利制造企业的虚拟世界,我们提供了意大利企业在专利和商标方面的创新活动的相当完整的图景,我们研究了保护知识产权(IP)的两种工具是否表现出互补性或可替代性。此外,根据我们的知识新颖,我们提出了一种衡量同一公司拥有的专利和商标之间的一致性(或接近性)的方法,然后我们调查这种一致性是否对绩效产生任何影响。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Innovation Measurement & Indicators eJournal
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