国际金融危机:拉丁美洲的八个教训

L. Rojas-Suárez
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引用次数: 35

摘要

2008年至2009年的国际金融危机暴露了拉丁美洲当前发展模式的优势和弱点,这一模式基于资本账户自由化和宏观经济条件的显著改善。本文提出了从危机中汲取的教训,不仅适用于该地区本身,也适用于其他可能在进一步融入国际资本市场的背景下寻求经济增长的发展中国家。其中一些教训并不新鲜,但在危机中得到了强化,比如拉丁美洲迫切需要出口多样化(不仅是产品多样化,还有合作伙伴多样化)。其他的教训打破了该地区长期以来的神话,比如它无力实施反周期政策——至少在货币方面。然而,其他经验教训反映了当前增长范式的新发展,例如重新评估(1)外国银行和国内银行在保护金融体系免受外部冲击方面的相对作用,以及(2)采用不考虑国家发展程度的一揽子国际金融法规的可取性。综上所述,本文的经验教训为拉丁美洲的增长带来了新的乐观情绪。
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The International Financial Crisis: Eight Lessons for and from Latin America
The international financial crisis of 2008–09 exposed the strengths and weaknesses of the current paradigm of development in Latin America, a paradigm based on liberalized capital accounts and significantly improved macroeconomic conditions. This paper presents lessons derived from the crisis, not only for the region itself, but also for other developing countries that might seek economic growth in the context of greater integration to the international capital markets. Some of the lessons are not new but have been reinforced by the crisis, such as Latin America’s imperative need for export diversification (not only in products but in partners). Other lessons break with longstanding myths about the region, such as its inability to undertake counter-cyclical policies—at least on the monetary side. Yet other lessons reflect new developments in the current growth paradigm, such as a renewed assessment of (1) the relative roles of foreign and domestic banks in shielding the financial system against external shocks and (2) the desirability of adopting blanket international financial regulations that do not account for a country’s degree of development. Taken together, the lessons in this paper bring a new sense of optimism for growth in Latin America.
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