不同防控措施对新冠肺炎传播的效果分析

Qizhen Zhou
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摘要

2019冠状病毒病大流行影响了全球大多数人口。评估不同控制措施对病毒传播的有效性至关重要。本文在NetLogo平台上采用基于SEIR agent的模型建立仿真模型,定义易感、传染、戴口罩、隔离、暴露、接种七种agent。我们对四种可能的情况进行了分析:(1)什么都不做,(2)隔离,(3)戴口罩,(4)接种疫苗。结果表明,采取不同的控制措施可以快速控制疫情。疫苗接种的使用也对控制疫情的压力产生巨大影响。然而,如果不采取控制措施,这一流行病的持续时间将大大延长。
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Effectiveness of Different Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced most of the population worldwide. It is essential to assess the effectiveness of different control measures on the spread of the virus. In this paper, the author uses an SEIR agent-based model on the NetLogo platform to establish a simulation model and define seven types of agents: susceptible, infectious, mask-wearing, quarantined, exposed, and vaccinated. We performed an analysis of four possible scenarios: (1) doing nothing, (2) quarantine, (3) using face masks, and (4) vaccination. It is concluded that the adoption of different control measures could quickly control the epidemic situation. The use of vaccination also has a huge impact on the pressure of epidemic control. Nevertheless, If control measures are not put in place, the duration of the epidemic will be significantly prolonged.
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